MARKET WIREYahoo • 5d ago
Are Consumer Discretionary Stocks Lagging Marriott International (MAR) This Year?Here is how Marriott International (MAR) and Target Hospitality (TH) have performed compared to their sector so far this year.
Why TH Stock advanced +0.92% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$14.24 +0.92% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.24
Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.42B
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Is TH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $14.24 (+0.92% 1D, market cap $1.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TH ranks #679 in composite RQD confidence.
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How does TH compare to MLCO and HBNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), TH carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 15.5%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 8.2x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $1.51B) and HBNB (Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.09B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLCO leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while MCRI leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TH?
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Per TH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001712189), Target Hospitality Corp. generated $274.8M in revenue (+3.4% YoY), -$37.1M in net income, and $74.1M in free cash flow against $530.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.24 (-0.02%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 27% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TH SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (27% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 27% FCF Margin ($74.1M FCF) & 15.5% Gross Margin
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (23% of score)
Altman Z-Score 7.09 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$18.41-16% Next Q
56
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$15.46-10.8% Next Q
53
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$13.79+3.3% Next Q
51
CurrentGrade D$14.24-5.6% Hist 90D α
48
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TH Turnaround Squeeze
While TH currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.06) and Max Pain ($14.95) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.85.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TH Stock advanced +0.92% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) advanced +0.92% to $14.24, trading at 52% of its 52-week range ($5.97 – $21.76). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 52% of its 52-week range ($5.97 – $21.76) with RSI-14 at 27.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.6% around $14.24 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 15.5% gross margin and $74.1M annual free cash flow.
Live TH Headlines & Catalysts
CATALYSTYahoo • 5d ago
Royal Caribbean (RCL) Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue EstimatesRoyal Caribbean (RCL) delivered earnings and revenue surprises of +2.98% and +0.14%, respectively, for the quarter ended September 2026. Do the numbers hold clues to what lies ahead for the stock?
MARKET WIREYahoo • 7d ago
Is Target Hospitality (TH) Reasonable On Future Cash Flow?Target Hospitality has had a sharp run over the past few years, and the recent pullback puts fresh focus on whether the current share price lines up with the cash the business can generate. With the stock closing at US$1
CATALYSTBenzinga • 13d ago
'ICE Private Prison Contracts Set Up Tough Environmental Battle' - Bloomberg Lawhttps://news.bloomberglaw.com/environment-and-energy/ice-private-prison-contracts-set-up-tough-environmental-battle?taid=6ad6433bf6d6f300019ee462&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TH)
- ✓Walkthrough of TH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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TH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.06%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $13.67H $14.24L $13.01C $14.24VOL 2.82M
RES: $22.14SUP: $10.85SMA50: $18.06SMA200: $14.77
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +3.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TH today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TH)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #679 of 1011
⚔️ MLCO vs TH Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TH vs. MLCO, HBNB, XHR, MCRI)
Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) ranks #679 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #468 by equity capitalization ($1.42B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MLCO leads on earnings valuation at 8.2x trailing P/E, while MCRI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 23.4% gross margin. MCRI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with TH at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TH
ACTIVE
Target Hospitality Corp. | D | 48/100 | — | 15.5% | -7.2% | +0.92% | $1.42B | Benchmark Subject |
| MLCO Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited | C | 62/100 | 8.2x | — | 10.6% | +2.95% | $1.51B | /mlco-vs-th → |
| HBNB Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A) | D | 48/100 | — | — | — | -5.09% | $1.09B | /hbnb-vs-th → |
| XHR Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | 30.3x | 30.6% | 8.5% | +0.14% | $1.91B | /xhr-vs-th → |
| MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 19.8x | 23.4% | 18.9% | -0.44% | $2.00B | /mcri-vs-th → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001712189In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) reported GAAP revenue of $274.8M (+3.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $265.9M , and -24.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$37.1M, operating cash flow of $74.1M, and free cash flow of $74.1M (-51.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, TH closed FY2025 with $530.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.09, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $274.8M | -$37.1M | $74.1M | $74.1M | $530.2M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $265.9M | $71.4M | $151.7M | $151.7M | $725.8M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $365.6M | $173.7M | $156.8M | $156.8M | — | — |
3. TH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $14.24 (+0.92% 1D, market cap $1.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TH ranks #679 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TH compare to MLCO and HBNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), TH carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 15.5%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 8.2x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $1.51B) and HBNB (Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.09B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLCO leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while MCRI leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TH?
Per TH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001712189), Target Hospitality Corp. generated $274.8M in revenue (+3.4% YoY), -$37.1M in net income, and $74.1M in free cash flow against $530.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TH last traded at $14.24 (+0.92% on volume of 1,295,642 shares), positioning the stock -21.15% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.06) and -3.59% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.77). Across its 52-week range of $5.97 to $21.76, TH sits at the 52.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.6% ($12.73 to $15.75).
TH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TH stock moving today?
Why TH Stock advanced +0.92% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.