Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TH / earnings

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Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.5% Move

$13.67 -4.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.55

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.42B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $13.67 (-4.00% 1D, market cap $1.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TH ranks #663 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TH compare to MLCO and HBNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), TH carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 15.5%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 8.2x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $1.51B) and HBNB (Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.09B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLCO leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while MCRI leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TH?

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Per TH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001712189), Target Hospitality Corp. generated $274.8M in revenue (+3.4% YoY), -$37.1M in net income, and $74.1M in free cash flow against $530.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.55 (-0.91%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 27% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TH SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 27% FCF Margin ($74.1M FCF) & 15.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 7.09 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$18.84-18.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$15.32-8.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$14.06-2.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$13.67-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TH currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($17.98) and Max Pain ($14.35) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.85.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.5% Swing Band

±$1.44 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TH Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 45/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 3.4%

Model Bullish Setup (45/100)Model Risk Weight (55/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$274.8M	-$37.1M	$74.1M	15.5%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$265.9M	$71.4M	$151.7M	67%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$365.6M	$173.7M	$156.8M	15.5%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TH)

✓Walkthrough of TH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.77%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $14.11H $14.24L $13.67C $13.67VOL 1.30M

RES: $22.16SUP: $10.79SMA50: $17.98SMA200: $14.80

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TH Butterfly Map → + Track TH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #663 of 1011 ⚔️ MLCO vs TH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TH vs. MLCO, HBNB, XHR, MCRI)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) ranks #663 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #468 by equity capitalization ($1.42B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MLCO leads on earnings valuation at 8.2x trailing P/E, while MCRI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 23.4% gross margin. XHR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with TH at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TH ACTIVE Target Hospitality Corp.	D	45/100	—	15.5%	-7.2%	-4.00%	$1.42B	Benchmark Subject
MLCO Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited	D	44/100	8.2x	—	10.6%	+2.60%	$1.51B	/mlco-vs-th →
HBNB Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)	D	49/100	—	—	—	+1.93%	$1.09B	/hbnb-vs-th →
XHR Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc.	C-	59/100	30.3x	30.6%	8.5%	-1.30%	$1.91B	/xhr-vs-th →
MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort Inc.	D+	58/100	19.8x	23.4%	18.9%	-1.09%	$2.00B	/mcri-vs-th →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001712189

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) reported GAAP revenue of $274.8M (+3.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $265.9M , and -24.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$37.1M, operating cash flow of $74.1M, and free cash flow of $74.1M (-51.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, TH closed FY2025 with $530.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.09, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$274.8M	-$37.1M	$74.1M	$74.1M	$530.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$265.9M	$71.4M	$151.7M	$151.7M	$725.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$365.6M	$173.7M	$156.8M	$156.8M	—	—

3. TH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TH compare to MLCO and HBNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TH?

Where is TH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TH last traded at $13.67 (-4.00% on volume of 2,816,976 shares), positioning the stock -23.97% below its 50-day simple moving average ($17.98) and -7.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.80). Across its 52-week range of $5.97 to $21.76, TH sits at the 48.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($12.23 to $15.11).

TH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is TH's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Target Hospitality Corp. (TH)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is TH stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±10.5% event move for TH, spanning a range between $12.23 and $15.11.

Direct Sub-Reports: TH RQD Cockpit TH 12M Forecast TH Earnings & Move TH Dividends & DRIP TH Insiders & 13F TH Whale Options TH Profit Sankey TH News & Why