Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TH / dividends

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Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

Q: Does TH pay a dividend and is it safe?

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 1.8% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

$14.24 +0.92% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.24

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.42B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.24 (-0.02%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 27% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TH SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 27% FCF Margin ($74.1M FCF) & 15.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 7.09 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$18.41-16% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$15.46-10.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$13.79+3.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$14.24-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TH currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.06) and Max Pain ($14.95) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.85.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

1.8% Total Yield

0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

0% (100% Reinvested)

Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $307/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.6K

Yr 1

$11.1K

Yr 2

$11.7K

Yr 3

$12.4K

Yr 4

$13.1K

Yr 5

$13.8K

Yr 6

$14.5K

Yr 7

$15.3K

Yr 8

$16.2K

Yr 9

$17.1K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TH)

✓Walkthrough of TH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.06%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $13.67H $14.24L $13.01C $14.24VOL 2.82M

RES: $22.14SUP: $10.85SMA50: $18.06SMA200: $14.77

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TH Butterfly Map → + Track TH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #679 of 1011 ⚔️ MLCO vs TH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TH vs. MLCO, HBNB, XHR, MCRI)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) ranks #679 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #468 by equity capitalization ($1.42B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MLCO leads on earnings valuation at 8.2x trailing P/E, while MCRI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 23.4% gross margin. MCRI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with TH at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TH ACTIVE Target Hospitality Corp.	D	48/100	—	15.5%	-7.2%	+0.92%	$1.42B	Benchmark Subject
MLCO Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited	C	62/100	8.2x	—	10.6%	+2.95%	$1.51B	/mlco-vs-th →
HBNB Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)	D	48/100	—	—	—	-5.09%	$1.09B	/hbnb-vs-th →
XHR Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc.	D+	53/100	30.3x	30.6%	8.5%	+0.14%	$1.91B	/xhr-vs-th →
MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort Inc.	C+	69/100	19.8x	23.4%	18.9%	-0.44%	$2.00B	/mcri-vs-th →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001712189

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) reported GAAP revenue of $274.8M (+3.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $265.9M , and -24.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$37.1M, operating cash flow of $74.1M, and free cash flow of $74.1M (-51.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, TH closed FY2025 with $530.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.09, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$274.8M	-$37.1M	$74.1M	$74.1M	$530.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$265.9M	$71.4M	$151.7M	$151.7M	$725.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$365.6M	$173.7M	$156.8M	$156.8M	—	—

3. TH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $14.24 (+0.92% 1D, market cap $1.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TH ranks #679 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TH compare to MLCO and HBNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), TH carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 15.5%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 8.2x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $1.51B) and HBNB (Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.09B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLCO leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while MCRI leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TH?

Per TH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001712189), Target Hospitality Corp. generated $274.8M in revenue (+3.4% YoY), -$37.1M in net income, and $74.1M in free cash flow against $530.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TH last traded at $14.24 (+0.92% on volume of 1,295,642 shares), positioning the stock -21.15% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.06) and -3.59% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.77). Across its 52-week range of $5.97 to $21.76, TH sits at the 52.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 27.5 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.6% ($12.73 to $15.75).

TH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does TH pay a dividend and is it safe?

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 1.8% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

Direct Sub-Reports: TH RQD Cockpit TH 12M Forecast TH Earnings & Move TH Dividends & DRIP TH Insiders & 13F TH Whale Options TH Profit Sankey TH News & Why