Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TH / insiders

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Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$13.67 -4.00% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.55

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.42B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $13.67 (-4.00% 1D, market cap $1.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TH ranks #663 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TH compare to MLCO and HBNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), TH carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 15.5%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 8.2x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $1.51B) and HBNB (Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.09B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLCO leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while MCRI leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TH?

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Per TH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001712189), Target Hospitality Corp. generated $274.8M in revenue (+3.4% YoY), -$37.1M in net income, and $74.1M in free cash flow against $530.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.55 (-0.91%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 27% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TH SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 27% FCF Margin ($74.1M FCF) & 15.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 7.09 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$18.84-18.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$15.32-8.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$14.06-2.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$13.67-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TH currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($17.98) and Max Pain ($14.35) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.85.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

TH Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (TH)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on TH. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TH)

✓Walkthrough of TH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.77%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $14.11H $14.24L $13.67C $13.67VOL 1.30M

RES: $22.16SUP: $10.79SMA50: $17.98SMA200: $14.80

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TH Butterfly Map → + Track TH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #663 of 1011 ⚔️ MLCO vs TH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TH vs. MLCO, HBNB, XHR, MCRI)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) ranks #663 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #468 by equity capitalization ($1.42B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MLCO leads on earnings valuation at 8.2x trailing P/E, while MCRI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 23.4% gross margin. XHR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with TH at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TH ACTIVE Target Hospitality Corp.	D	45/100	—	15.5%	-7.2%	-4.00%	$1.42B	Benchmark Subject
MLCO Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited	D	44/100	8.2x	—	10.6%	+2.60%	$1.51B	/mlco-vs-th →
HBNB Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)	D	49/100	—	—	—	+1.93%	$1.09B	/hbnb-vs-th →
XHR Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc.	C-	59/100	30.3x	30.6%	8.5%	-1.30%	$1.91B	/xhr-vs-th →
MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort Inc.	D+	58/100	19.8x	23.4%	18.9%	-1.09%	$2.00B	/mcri-vs-th →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001712189

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) reported GAAP revenue of $274.8M (+3.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $265.9M , and -24.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$37.1M, operating cash flow of $74.1M, and free cash flow of $74.1M (-51.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, TH closed FY2025 with $530.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.09, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$274.8M	-$37.1M	$74.1M	$74.1M	$530.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$265.9M	$71.4M	$151.7M	$151.7M	$725.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$365.6M	$173.7M	$156.8M	$156.8M	—	—

3. TH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TH compare to MLCO and HBNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TH?

Where is TH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TH last traded at $13.67 (-4.00% on volume of 2,816,976 shares), positioning the stock -23.97% below its 50-day simple moving average ($17.98) and -7.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.80). Across its 52-week range of $5.97 to $21.76, TH sits at the 48.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($12.23 to $15.11).

TH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are TH insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies TH leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: TH RQD Cockpit TH 12M Forecast TH Earnings & Move TH Dividends & DRIP TH Insiders & 13F TH Whale Options TH Profit Sankey TH News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TH — Target Hospitality Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:29:16Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TH scores 45 out of 100 and receives a letter grade of D, labeled "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars break down as follows. Fundamental Cash Engine scores 13 of 20, reflecting ROIC of -7.2% and an FCF yield of 5.22%. Whale 13F Flow scores 6 of 20 on institutional accumulation and options positioning. Insider Conviction scores 6 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro Regime Fit scores 9 of 20, with a beta of 1.0 and a sector sensitivity noted in the rating. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 11 of 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 7.09, a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5.

For a prospective investor, the pillar profile points to a company where the balance sheet is the strongest relative input (Altman Z 7.09, Debt/Equity 0.5), while the operating and ownership signals are weak. The negative ROIC and the Piotroski score of 3/9 limit the upside case from the fundamental side, and the low 13F and insider scores suggest little smart-money conviction in the current tape. The 5.22% FCF yield is a potential valuation support, but the rating treats it as insufficient to offset deteriorating profitability. The 52-week range of $5.97 to $21.76 against a current price of $14.24 illustrates how wide the trading range has been, which is itself an investor-relevant volatility consideration. The overall rating is a distribution warning rather than a valuation call, so the relevant question for an investor is whether the cash generation and balance sheet can stabilize before earnings recover.

Business

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, operating in the Hotels/Resorts industry, per the profile section. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. The Financial Trend data shows revenue of $274.8M for FY 2025, but the source does not attribute that revenue to specific segments or customer types. Not available in source data for detailed business description beyond sector and industry classification.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$274.8M	$-34.7M	$-37.1M	N/A	$74.1M	$8.3M	N/A
FY 2024	$265.9M	$108.8M	$71.4M	N/A	$151.7M	$190.7M	N/A
FY 2023	$365.6M	$240.6M	$173.7M	N/A	$156.8M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue moved from $365.6M in FY 2023 to $265.9M in FY 2024 and then to $274.8M in FY 2025, while operating income went from $240.6M to $108.8M to $-34.7M over the same span. Per the market data section, gross margin is 15.5%, operating margin is -12.6%, and net margin is -13.5%, with ROIC at -7.2%. The rating's forensic inputs show an Altman Z-Score of 7.09 and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. Per the financials, cash fell from $190.7M in FY 2024 to $8.3M in FY 2025, while FCF remained positive at $74.1M; debt is listed as N/A in the reported periods, and the rating cites Debt/Equity of 0.5.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, six headlines cover TH within the last 15 hours. The Yahoo Finance item carrying a "CATALYST" label is headlined "Wall Street Analysts Think Target Hospitality (TH) Could Surge 39.76%: Read This Before Placing a Bet," and is tagged GREEN. Other headlines are tagged YELLOW and labeled MARKET WIRE, including a StockInvest.us forecast piece, an Investing.com report that "TDR Capital II investments LP sells $202.4m Target Hospitality stock," a TradingView estimates page, a Yahoo Finance cash-flow valuation piece, and a MarketBeat item reporting that shares were down 7.7%. The institutional sale headline is the most concrete ownership-related item in the feed and is a risk watch item. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals, so the catalyst picture rests entirely on the news feed. The feed does not contain earnings, guidance, or contract announcements.

Open Questions

What drove the drop from $265.9M revenue and $108.8M operating income in FY 2024 to $-34.7M operating loss in FY 2025 despite revenue growth?
Why did cash decline from $190.7M to $8.3M while FCF was positive at $74.1M in FY 2025, and where did the capital go?
What are the reported debt levels, given that debt is N/A in all periods while Debt/Equity is cited at 0.5?
What is the basis for the 39.76% upside figure in the Yahoo Finance headline, and what analyst targets underlie it?
What is the scale and motive of the TDR Capital II sale relative to the company's float and current holder base?

TH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TH Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 3h ago

Wall Street Analysts Think Target Hospitality (TH) Could Surge 39.76%: Read This Before Placing a Bet

Yahoo Finance report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 6h ago

Target Hospitality Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy TH?

StockInvest.us report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 9h ago

TDR Capital II investments LP sells $202.4m Target Hospitality stock By Investing.com

Investing.com report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 12h ago

Target Hospitality Corp. Estimates – NASDAQ:TH

TradingView report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 15h ago

Is Target Hospitality (TH) Reasonable On Future Cash Flow?

Yahoo Finance report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 18h ago

Target Hospitality (NASDAQ:TH) Shares Down 7.7% - Here's What Happened

MarketBeat report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Timothy Sykes • 21h ago

TH Stock Dips As Target Hospitality Holders Accelerate Selling

Timothy Sykes report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

Q3 results are due before markets open Nov. 9; Target Hospitality's call starts at 9 a.m. ET.

Stock Titan report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $13.67?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TH 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $12.53 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TH (D • RQD 45/100) a Buy at $14.24?

Welcome to the TH (Target Hospitality Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 45/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Hotels/Resorts. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.39 (-20.0%)

Spot @ $14.24

Pump the brakes on TH — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TH, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 15.5% gross margins. Unless Target Hospitality Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $18.23 (+28.0%)

Spot @ $14.24

TH cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TH, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Hotels/Resorts and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $14.24 (52-wk range $5.97 - $21.76), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.