MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why SEPN Stock surged +2.22% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$45.23 +2.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.32
Septerna Inc. (SEPN) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $2.11B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.32 (+0.21%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 238.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SEPN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SEPN SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)
Altman Z-Score 5.87 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 83% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 65.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$38.37-5.3% Next Q
54
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$36.35+11.2% Next Q
57
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$40.41+11.9% Next Q
59
CurrentGrade C$45.23+0.7% Hist 90D α
62
Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SEPN Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 62/100 (C) score, SEPN faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($38.95) or 200D SMA ($32.08) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($46.04) toward Bear Floor ($35.91).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SEPN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SEPN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why SEPN Stock surged +2.22% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Septerna Inc. (SEPN) surged +2.22% to $45.23, trading at 83% of its 52-week range ($17.55 – $51.1). Solid steady margins (-21% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 83% of its 52-week range ($17.55 – $51.1) with RSI-14 at 65.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $45.23 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $109.7M annual free cash flow.
Live SEPN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
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CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SEPN Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
SEPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +90.36%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $45.00H $45.43L $43.68C $45.23VOL 223.4K
RES: $42.49SUP: $35.10SMA50: $38.95SMA200: $32.08
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
SEPN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SEPN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SEPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SEPN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SEPN)
Health Care Rank #167 of 1016
⚔️ LKFT vs SEPN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SEPN vs. LKFT, IMNM, XNCR, SLS)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Septerna Inc. (SEPN) ranks #167 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #254 by equity capitalization ($2.11B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SEPN leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while SEPN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -20.7% ROIC and — gross margin. SEPN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 62/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEPN
ACTIVE
Septerna Inc. | C | 62/100 | — | — | -20.7% | +2.22% | $2.11B | Benchmark Subject |
| LKFT Lakefront Biotherapeutics | C- | 61/100 | — | — | — | +0.78% | $2.13B | /lkft-vs-sepn → |
| IMNM Immunome Inc. | D- | 38/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -2.50% | $2.16B | /imnm-vs-sepn → |
| XNCR Xencor Inc. | D- | 43/100 | — | — | -21.3% | -2.60% | $2.17B | /xncr-vs-sepn → |
| SLS SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc. | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -21.8% | -2.17% | $2.05B | /sls-vs-sepn → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001984086In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Septerna Inc. (SEPN) reported GAAP revenue of $46.0M (+4174.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.1M , and +30331.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$48.9M, operating cash flow of $110.2M, and free cash flow of $109.7M (+257.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, SEPN closed FY2025 with $596.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.87, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $46.0M | -$48.9M | $110.2M | $109.7M | $596.2M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.1M | -$71.8M | -$67.5M | -$69.6M | $456.6M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $151.0K | $4.2M | -$38.7M | -$38.7M | — | — |
3. SEPN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs SEPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Septerna Inc. (NASDAQ: SEPN) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $45.23 (+2.22% 1D, market cap $2.11B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SEPN ranks #167 in composite RQD confidence.
How does SEPN compare to LKFT and IMNM in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), SEPN carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -20.7%. By comparison, LKFT (Lakefront Biotherapeutics) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.13B) and IMNM (Immunome Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEPN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SEPN leads on capital efficiency (-20.7% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SEPN?
Per SEPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001984086), Septerna Inc. generated $46.0M in revenue (+4174.5% YoY), -$48.9M in net income, and $109.7M in free cash flow against $596.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is SEPN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
SEPN last traded at $45.23 (+2.22% on volume of 200,711 shares), positioning the stock +16.12% above its 50-day simple moving average ($38.95) and +40.99% above its 200-day simple moving average ($32.08). Across its 52-week range of $17.55 to $51.10, SEPN sits at the 82.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($39.58 to $50.88).
SEPN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is SEPN stock moving today?
Why SEPN Stock surged +2.22% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (-21% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.