Stock Ratings / Health Care / SEPN / earnings

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Septerna Inc. (SEPN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$45.23 +2.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.32

Septerna Inc. (SEPN) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.11B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.32 (+0.21%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 238.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SEPN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SEPN SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.87 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 83% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 65.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 12 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$38.37-5.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$36.35+11.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$40.41+11.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C$45.23+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SEPN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, SEPN faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.12% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($38.95) or 200D SMA ($32.08) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($46.04) toward Bear Floor ($35.91).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SEPN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SEPN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$5.65 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SEPN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 62/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 180%

Model Bullish Setup (62/100)Model Risk Weight (38/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$46.0M	-$48.9M	$109.7M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$1.1M	-$71.8M	-$69.6M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$151.0K	$4.2M	-$38.7M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SEPN & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SEPN
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SEPN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +90.36%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $45.00H $45.43L $43.68C $45.23VOL 223.4K

RES: $42.49SUP: $35.10SMA50: $38.95SMA200: $32.08

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SEPN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SEPN Butterfly Map → + Track SEPN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SEPN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SEPN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SEPN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SEPN)

Health Care Rank #167 of 1016 ⚔️ LKFT vs SEPN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (SEPN vs. LKFT, IMNM, XNCR, SLS)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Septerna Inc. (SEPN) ranks #167 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #254 by equity capitalization ($2.11B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SEPN leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while SEPN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -20.7% ROIC and — gross margin. SEPN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SEPN ACTIVE Septerna Inc.	C	62/100	—	—	-20.7%	+2.22%	$2.11B	Benchmark Subject
LKFT Lakefront Biotherapeutics	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+0.78%	$2.13B	/lkft-vs-sepn →
IMNM Immunome Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.50%	$2.16B	/imnm-vs-sepn →
XNCR Xencor Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-21.3%	-2.60%	$2.17B	/xncr-vs-sepn →
SLS SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-21.8%	-2.17%	$2.05B	/sls-vs-sepn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001984086

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Septerna Inc. (SEPN) reported GAAP revenue of $46.0M (+4174.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.1M , and +30331.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$48.9M, operating cash flow of $110.2M, and free cash flow of $109.7M (+257.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, SEPN closed FY2025 with $596.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.87, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$46.0M	-$48.9M	$110.2M	$109.7M	$596.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.1M	-$71.8M	-$67.5M	-$69.6M	$456.6M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$151.0K	$4.2M	-$38.7M	-$38.7M	—	—

3. SEPN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SEPN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Septerna Inc. (NASDAQ: SEPN) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $45.23 (+2.22% 1D, market cap $2.11B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, SEPN ranks #167 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SEPN compare to LKFT and IMNM in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), SEPN carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -20.7%. By comparison, LKFT (Lakefront Biotherapeutics) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.13B) and IMNM (Immunome Inc.) posts a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEPN leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SEPN leads on capital efficiency (-20.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SEPN?

Per SEPN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001984086), Septerna Inc. generated $46.0M in revenue (+4174.5% YoY), -$48.9M in net income, and $109.7M in free cash flow against $596.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SEPN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SEPN last traded at $45.23 (+2.22% on volume of 200,711 shares), positioning the stock +16.12% above its 50-day simple moving average ($38.95) and +40.99% above its 200-day simple moving average ($32.08). Across its 52-week range of $17.55 to $51.10, SEPN sits at the 82.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($39.58 to $50.88).

SEPN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is SEPN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Septerna Inc. (SEPN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is SEPN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for SEPN, spanning a range between $39.58 and $50.88.

Direct Sub-Reports: SEPN RQD Cockpit SEPN 12M Forecast SEPN Earnings & Move SEPN Dividends & DRIP SEPN Insiders & 13F SEPN Whale Options SEPN Profit Sankey SEPN News & Why