Stock Ratings / Financials / RWAY / options

HRZN (58) HTT (41) USDE (57) MFIN (57) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$6.60 +1.70% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.61

Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $276.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.61 (+0.12%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 4.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RWAY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RWAY SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 29% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.7% FCF Margin ($186.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$6.39-0.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$6.33+2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$6.46+2.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$6.60+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the RWAY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, RWAY faces multiple-compression risk if 8.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($6.54) or 200D SMA ($6.78) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($6.78) toward Bear Floor ($5.29).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RWAY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RWAY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.7%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (RWAY)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for RWAY.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating RWAY & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on RWAY
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✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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RWAY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.93%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $6.56H $6.60L $6.43C $6.60VOL 330.5K

RES: $6.66SUP: $6.34SMA50: $6.54SMA200: $6.78

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RWAY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RWAY Butterfly Map → + Track RWAY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-5.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RWAY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RWAY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RWAY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RWAY)

Financials Rank #360 of 1096 ⚔️ HRZN vs RWAY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RWAY vs. HRZN, HTT, USDE, MFIN)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) ranks #360 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #831 by equity capitalization ($276.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFIN leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while MFIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.5% ROIC and — gross margin. RWAY currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RWAY ACTIVE Runway Growth Finance Corp.	C	64/100	8.1x	—	7.0%	+1.70%	$276.6M	Benchmark Subject
HRZN Horizon Technology Finance Corporation	D+	58/100	—	—	-0.8%	+2.74%	$276.9M	/hrzn-vs-rway →
HTT High Templar Tech Limited each representing one Class A ordinary share	D-	41/100	—	—	-5.2%	-3.19%	$282.6M	/htt-vs-rway →
USDE StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)	D+	57/100	—	—	—	+4.44%	$268.6M	/usde-vs-rway →
MFIN Medallion Financial Corp.	D+	57/100	6.2x	—	10.5%	+1.39%	$268.2M	/mfin-vs-rway →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001653384

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $34.0M, operating cash flow of $186.3M, and free cash flow of $186.3M (+167.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, RWAY closed FY2025 with $960.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$34.0M	$186.3M	$186.3M	$960.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$73.6M	$69.8M	$69.8M	$1.09B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$44.3M	$112.4M	$112.4M	—	—

3. RWAY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RWAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Runway Growth Finance Corp. (NASDAQ: RWAY) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $6.60 (+1.70% 1D, market cap $276.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, RWAY ranks #360 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RWAY compare to HRZN and HTT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), RWAY carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.0%. By comparison, HRZN (Horizon Technology Finance Corporation) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.8%, cap $276.9M) and HTT (High Templar Tech Limited each representing one Class A ordinary share) posts a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.2%, cap $282.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFIN leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while MFIN leads on capital efficiency (10.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RWAY?

Per RWAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001653384), Runway Growth Finance Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $34.0M in net income, and $186.3M in free cash flow against $960.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RWAY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RWAY last traded at $6.60 (+1.70% on volume of 207,576 shares), positioning the stock +0.92% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.54) and -2.65% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.78). Across its 52-week range of $5.19 to $10.06, RWAY sits at the 29.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($6.29 to $6.91).

RWAY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is RWAY's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for RWAY.

Direct Sub-Reports: RWAY RQD Cockpit RWAY 12M Forecast RWAY Earnings & Move RWAY Dividends & DRIP RWAY Insiders & 13F RWAY Whale Options RWAY Profit Sankey RWAY News & Why