Stock Ratings / Financials / RWAY / financials

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Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$6.60 +1.70% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.61

Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $276.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RWAY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RWAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Runway Growth Finance Corp. (NASDAQ: RWAY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $6.60 (+1.70% 1D, market cap $276.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, RWAY ranks #590 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RWAY compare to HRZN and HTT in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), RWAY carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.0%. By comparison, HRZN (Horizon Technology Finance Corporation) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.8%, cap $276.9M) and HTT (High Templar Tech Limited each representing one Class A ordinary share) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.2%, cap $282.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MFIN leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while MFIN leads on capital efficiency (10.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RWAY?

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Per RWAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001653384), Runway Growth Finance Corp. generated $0 in revenue, $34.0M in net income, and $186.3M in free cash flow against $960.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.61 (+0.12%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 4.7% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RWAY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RWAY SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.7% FCF Margin ($186.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (56.1) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$6.41-2.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$6.24+2.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$6.37+3.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$6.60-0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (46) → D+ (54)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RWAY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RWAY currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.54) and Max Pain ($6.93) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.56.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RWAY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RWAY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How RWAY Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$186.3M (4.7% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	0%	$34.0M	$186.3M	7%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	0%	$73.6M	$69.8M	7%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	0%	$44.3M	$112.4M	7%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RWAY)

✓Walkthrough of RWAY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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RWAY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -4.21%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $6.49H $6.60L $6.49C $6.60VOL 207.6K

RES: $6.65SUP: $6.35SMA50: $6.54SMA200: $6.76

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RWAY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RWAY Butterfly Map → + Track RWAY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-5.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RWAY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RWAY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RWAY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RWAY)

Financials Rank #590 of 1096 ⚔️ HRZN vs RWAY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RWAY vs. HRZN, HTT, USDE, MFIN)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) ranks #590 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #831 by equity capitalization ($276.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MFIN leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while MFIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MFIN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with RWAY at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RWAY ACTIVE Runway Growth Finance Corp.	D+	54/100	8.1x	—	7.0%	+1.70%	$276.6M	Benchmark Subject
HRZN Horizon Technology Finance Corporation	D	48/100	—	—	-0.8%	+2.74%	$276.9M	/hrzn-vs-rway →
HTT High Templar Tech Limited each representing one Class A ordinary share	D-	35/100	—	—	-5.2%	-3.19%	$282.6M	/htt-vs-rway →
USDE StablecoinX Inc. (Class A)	D+	54/100	—	—	—	+4.44%	$268.6M	/usde-vs-rway →
MFIN Medallion Financial Corp.	C-	61/100	6.2x	—	10.5%	+1.39%	$268.2M	/mfin-vs-rway →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001653384

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $34.0M, operating cash flow of $186.3M, and free cash flow of $186.3M (+167.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, RWAY closed FY2025 with $960.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$34.0M	$186.3M	$186.3M	$960.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$73.6M	$69.8M	$69.8M	$1.09B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$44.3M	$112.4M	$112.4M	—	—

3. RWAY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RWAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does RWAY compare to HRZN and HTT in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RWAY?

Where is RWAY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RWAY last traded at $6.60 (+1.70% on volume of 207,576 shares), positioning the stock +0.92% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.54) and -2.37% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.76). Across its 52-week range of $5.19 to $10.06, RWAY sits at the 29.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($6.30 to $6.90).

RWAY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), RWAY converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $186.3M in free cash flow (4.7% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: RWAY RQD Cockpit RWAY 12M Forecast RWAY Earnings & Move RWAY Dividends & DRIP RWAY Insiders & 13F RWAY Whale Options RWAY Profit Sankey RWAY News & Why