Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MPAA / forecast

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Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Where is MPAA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPAA last traded at $10.30 (-3.29% on volume of 79,002 shares), positioning the stock -4.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.76) and -12.71% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.80). Across its 52-week range of $9.29 to $18.12, MPAA sits at the 11.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.4% ($9.54 to $11.06).

Q: What is MPAA's 12-month stock price target?

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $10.21 (-0.9% from $10.30), with a bull-case target of $19.03 and a bear-case floor of $7.96.

Q: Is MPAA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MPAA D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 56/100.

$10.30 -3.29% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.22

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $195.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MPAA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MPAA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (NASDAQ: MPAA) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $10.30 (-3.29% 1D, market cap $195.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MPAA ranks #446 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MPAA compare to SRI and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), MPAA carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of 20.2%, and ROIC of 21.6%. By comparison, SRI (Stoneridge Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $174.0M) and STRT (STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $256.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while MPAA leads on capital efficiency (21.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPAA?

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Per MPAA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0000918251), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. generated $789.8M in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $12.0M in net income, and $15.5M in free cash flow against $991.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.22 (-0.78%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPAA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MPAA SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (32% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.41 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$10.27-0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$10.25-1.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$10.13+1.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$10.30-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (48) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MPAA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, MPAA faces multiple-compression risk if 16.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.76) or 200D SMA ($11.80) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.21) toward Bear Floor ($7.96).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPAA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MPAA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MPAA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $10.30: 970.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $7.96

$7,728

$-2,272 (-22.7%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $10.21

$9,913

$-87 (-0.9%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $19.03

$18,476

+$8,476 (+84.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$11	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$18	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$9	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MPAA)

✓Walkthrough of MPAA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MPAA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.54%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $10.65H $10.65L $10.30C $10.30VOL 79.0K

RES: $10.94SUP: $9.77SMA50: $10.76SMA200: $11.80

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MPAA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MPAA Butterfly Map → + Track MPAA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPAA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPAA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPAA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPAA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #446 of 1011 ⚔️ SRI vs MPAA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MPAA vs. SRI, STRT, CVGI, CAAS)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) ranks #446 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #698 by equity capitalization ($195.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRT leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while MPAA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.6% ROIC and 20.2% gross margin. MPAA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MPAA ACTIVE Motorcar Parts of America Inc.	D+	56/100	16.3x	20.2%	21.6%	-3.29%	$195.0M	Benchmark Subject
SRI Stoneridge Inc.	D-	43/100	—	19.9%	-24.1%	+0.83%	$174.0M	/sri-vs-mpaa →
STRT STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION	D+	56/100	12.5x	16.5%	15.2%	+0.63%	$256.6M	/strt-vs-mpaa →
CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.	D-	43/100	—	10.5%	-0.2%	-1.22%	$131.2M	/cvgi-vs-mpaa →
CAAS China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share	D	49/100	—	19.0%	16.3%	-2.04%	$130.3M	/caas-vs-mpaa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0000918251

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) reported GAAP revenue of $789.8M (+4.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $757.4M , and +10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $12.0M, operating cash flow of $19.2M, and free cash flow of $15.5M (-62.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPAA closed FY2025 with $991.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.41, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$789.8M	$12.0M	$19.2M	$15.5M	$991.3M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$757.4M	-$19.0M	$45.5M	$40.9M	$949.5M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$717.7M	-$49.0M	$39.2M	$39.2M	—	—

3. MPAA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MPAA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MPAA compare to SRI and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPAA?

Where is MPAA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPAA last traded at $10.30 (-3.29% on volume of 79,002 shares), positioning the stock -4.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.76) and -12.71% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.80). Across its 52-week range of $9.29 to $18.12, MPAA sits at the 11.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.4% ($9.54 to $11.06).

MPAA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MPAA's 12-month stock price target?

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $10.21 (-0.9% from $10.30), with a bull-case target of $19.03 and a bear-case floor of $7.96.