Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CVGI

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Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$3.23 -1.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.22

Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $131.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.22 (-0.41%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 5.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CVGI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CVGI SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.2% FCF Margin ($34.0M FCF) & 10.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.08 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.87+0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.88+0% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.88+12.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$3.23-7.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (33) → D- (41)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CVGI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CVGI currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.00) and Max Pain ($3.39) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.17.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CVGI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CVGI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

58.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDWATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)

2.08>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

6 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE42% OF RANGE

L: $1$3.23H: $6

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (11% profit margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 11 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on CVGI

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (55)

-0.2% ROIC with 10.5% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 2.08 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (33)

11/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like CVGI

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CVGI)

✓Walkthrough of CVGI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CVGI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.73%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $3.16H $3.23L $3.08C $3.23VOL 349.0K

RES: $3.24SUP: $2.57SMA50: $3.00SMA200: $3.51

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CVGI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CVGI Butterfly Map → + Track CVGI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -10.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CVGI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CVGI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CVGI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CVGI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #808 of 1011 ⚔️ CAAS vs CVGI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CVGI vs. CAAS, SRI, MPAA, STRT)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) ranks #808 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #737 by equity capitalization ($131.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRT leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while MPAA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.6% ROIC and 20.2% gross margin. STRT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with CVGI at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CVGI ACTIVE Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.	D-	41/100	—	10.5%	-0.2%	-1.22%	$131.2M	Benchmark Subject
CAAS China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share	D+	53/100	—	19.0%	16.3%	-2.04%	$130.3M	/caas-vs-cvgi →
SRI Stoneridge Inc.	D+	55/100	—	19.9%	-24.1%	+0.83%	$174.0M	/sri-vs-cvgi →
MPAA Motorcar Parts of America Inc.	C	64/100	16.3x	20.2%	21.6%	-3.29%	$195.0M	/mpaa-vs-cvgi →
STRT STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION	C+	67/100	12.5x	16.5%	15.2%	+0.63%	$256.6M	/strt-vs-cvgi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001290900

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) reported GAAP revenue of $649.0M (-10.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $723.4M , and -22.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$20.5M, operating cash flow of $44.6M, and free cash flow of $34.0M (+165.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, CVGI closed FY2025 with $391.7M in total assets against $104.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.08, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$649.0M	-$20.5M	$44.6M	$34.0M	$391.7M	$104.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$723.4M	-$35.7M	-$33.5M	-$52.0M	$424.6M	$127.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$835.5M	$49.4M	$38.3M	$38.3M	—	—

3. CVGI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CVGI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CVGI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $3.23 (-1.22% 1D, market cap $131.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CVGI ranks #808 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CVGI compare to CAAS and SRI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), CVGI carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 10.5%, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, CAAS (China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 16.3%, cap $130.3M) and SRI (Stoneridge Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $174.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while MPAA leads on capital efficiency (21.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVGI?

Per CVGI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001290900), Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. generated $649.0M in revenue (-10.3% YoY), -$20.5M in net income, and $34.0M in free cash flow against $391.7M in total assets and $104.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CVGI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CVGI last traded at $3.23 (-1.22% on volume of 267,751 shares), positioning the stock +7.67% above its 50-day simple moving average ($3.00) and -7.98% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.51). Across its 52-week range of $1.29 to $5.88, CVGI sits at the 42.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.6% ($2.86 to $3.60).

CVGI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell CVGI stock right now?

Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 41/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is CVGI's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

CVGI's 12-month base price target is $2.98 (range $2.32 to $6.17), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: CVGI RQD Cockpit CVGI 12M Forecast CVGI Earnings & Move CVGI Dividends & DRIP CVGI Insiders & 13F CVGI Whale Options CVGI Profit Sankey CVGI News & Why