Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$3.16 -2.17% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.14

Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $131.2M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CVGI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CVGI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $3.16 (-2.17% 1D, market cap $131.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CVGI ranks #705 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CVGI compare to CAAS and SRI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), CVGI carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 10.5%, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, CAAS (China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 16.3%, cap $130.3M) and SRI (Stoneridge Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $174.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while MPAA leads on capital efficiency (21.6% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVGI?
β–Ό

Per CVGI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001290900), Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. generated $649.0M in revenue (-10.3% YoY), -$20.5M in net income, and $34.0M in free cash flow against $391.7M in total assets and $104.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.14 (-0.58%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) β€’ 5.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D-
025507510043
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- Β· Rk D-
Cash (11)Whales (10)SEC (10)Macro (7)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.6% Base Target
$6 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE CVGI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CVGI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±11.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY CVGI SCORES 43/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.2% FCF Margin ($34.0M FCF) & 10.5% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±11.3% realized swing band)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$2.90-1.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
38
Grade E$2.86-0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$2.85+10.9% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$3.16-6.7% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (35) β†’ D- (43)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CVGI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While CVGI currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.00) and Max Pain ($3.32) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.17.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CVGIβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œCVGI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±11.3%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CVGI)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for CVGI.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CVGI)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of CVGI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CVGI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.82%⚑ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $3.27H $3.27L $3.16C $3.16VOL 267.8K
RES: $3.38SUP: $2.56SMA50: $3.00SMA200: $3.52
$6.15$5.04$3.94$2.83$1.73RES $3.38SUP $2.56$3.162026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CVGI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -10.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CVGI today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CVGI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CVGI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CVGI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #705 of 1011 βš”οΈ CAAS vs CVGI Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CVGI vs. CAAS, SRI, MPAA, STRT)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) ranks #705 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #737 by equity capitalization ($131.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRT leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while MPAA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.6% ROIC and 20.2% gross margin. MPAA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with CVGI at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CVGI ACTIVE
Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.
D- 43/100 β€” 10.5% -0.2% -2.17% $131.2M Benchmark Subject
CAAS
China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share
D 49/100 β€” 19.0% 16.3% -0.46% $130.3M /caas-vs-cvgi β†’
SRI
Stoneridge Inc.
D- 43/100 β€” 19.9% -24.1% -6.88% $174.0M /sri-vs-cvgi β†’
MPAA
Motorcar Parts of America Inc.
D+ 56/100 16.3x 20.2% 21.6% +0.10% $195.0M /mpaa-vs-cvgi β†’
STRT
STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION
D+ 56/100 12.5x 16.5% 15.2% -2.56% $256.6M /strt-vs-cvgi β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001290900

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) reported GAAP revenue of $649.0M (-10.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $723.4M , and -22.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$20.5M, operating cash flow of $44.6M, and free cash flow of $34.0M (+165.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, CVGI closed FY2025 with $391.7M in total assets against $104.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.08, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $649.0M -$20.5M $44.6M $34.0M $391.7M $104.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $723.4M -$35.7M -$33.5M -$52.0M $424.6M $127.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $835.5M $49.4M $38.3M $38.3M β€” β€”

3. CVGI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CVGI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CVGI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $3.16 (-2.17% 1D, market cap $131.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CVGI ranks #705 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CVGI compare to CAAS and SRI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), CVGI carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 10.5%, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, CAAS (China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 16.3%, cap $130.3M) and SRI (Stoneridge Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $174.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while MPAA leads on capital efficiency (21.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVGI?

Per CVGI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001290900), Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. generated $649.0M in revenue (-10.3% YoY), -$20.5M in net income, and $34.0M in free cash flow against $391.7M in total assets and $104.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CVGI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CVGI last traded at $3.16 (-2.17% on volume of 349,001 shares), positioning the stock +5.33% above its 50-day simple moving average ($3.00) and -10.23% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.52). Across its 52-week range of $1.29 to $5.88, CVGI sits at the 40.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±11.3% ($2.80 to $3.52).

CVGI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

What is CVGI's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for CVGI.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 43/100 (D-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CVGI β€” Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:43:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CVGI scores 43 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell β€” Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The fundamental cash engine pillar scores 11 out of 20, reflecting an ROIC of -0.2% and an FCF yield of 0%; for a prospective investor this indicates the business is not currently generating a return on invested capital or free cash flow yield relative to its price. The whale 13F flow pillar scores 10 out of 20 on institutional accumulation and options positioning, a weak reading that suggests limited institutional sponsorship in the source data. The insider conviction pillar scores 5 out of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, the lowest pillar, and the source data contains no insider or congressional detail to explain it. The macro regime fit pillar scores 7 out of 20, with a beta of 1.0 and a sector sensitivity that the rating treats as a headwind. The forensic balance sheet pillar scores 10 out of 20, with an Altman Z-Score of 2.08, a Piotroski F-Score of 6 out of 9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.78. Taken together, the upside case rests on a recovery in operating and net margins from negative levels and a re-rating of a stock trading near the low end of its 52-week range, while the downside case rests on continued negative net margins, zero FCF yield, and weak insider and institutional signals. Valuation tradeoffs cannot be fully assessed because P/E, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS are not available in source data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$649.0M$-0.7M$-20.5MN/A$34.0MN/A$104.0M
FY 2024$723.4M$-0.8M$-35.7MN/A$-52.0MN/A$127.1M
FY 2023$835.5M$39.9M$49.4MN/A$38.3MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $835.5M in FY 2023 to $723.4M in FY 2024 and $649.0M in FY 2025, while net income moved from $49.4M to $-35.7M and then $-20.5M. Per the market data, the gross margin is 10.5%, the operating margin is -0.1%, and the net margin is -3.2%, with ROIC at -0.2%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.08 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6 out of 9, with Debt/Equity at 0.78. Reported debt fell from $127.1M to $104.0M across the two most recent periods, while cash is not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, all six items are tagged as YELLOW light and MARKET WIRE impact and relate to CVGI. The items are a general Yahoo! Finance Canada quote and history page, a Stocktwits overview, a TradingView estimates page, a Yahoo Finance preview stating the company is set to report earnings, a MarketBeat note that earnings are set for Monday, and a MarketBeat Q3 2026 earnings date and estimates item. The headlines reference an upcoming earnings event but the summaries do not contain estimate figures or results. Risk watch items are the negative net margin and the trend of declining revenue shown in the SEC financials. The butterfly supply-chain graph lists no supply chain relationships and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's products, customers, and revenue drivers, since the source data gives only sector and industry classification?
  • What were reported EPS, cash balances, and total debt in the periods where those fields show N/A or are missing?
  • What are the analyst consensus rating, price targets, and earnings estimates, given that analyst data is absent?
  • Who holds the stock at the institutional and insider level, and what do 13F and Form 4 filings show?
  • What do the upcoming earnings results and guidance indicate about the sustainability of the margin recovery needed to lift ROIC and FCF yield?

CVGI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to CVGI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🟑 MARKET WIRE Yahoo β€’ 3d ago
3 low-volatility stocks we find risky

A stock with low volatility can be reassuring, but it doesn’t always mean strong long-term performance. Investors who prioritize stability may miss out on higher-reward opportunities elsewhere.

Read Full Source β†—
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CVGI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $3.16?

πŸ‚ 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CVGI 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CVGI:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.84 (-12.1%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CVGI (D- β€’ RQD 43/100) a Buy at $3.23?

Welcome to the CVGI (Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 43/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Auto Parts:O.E.M.. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.62 (-18.9%)
Spot @ $3.23

Pump the brakes on CVGI β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CVGI, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 10.5% gross margins. Unless Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.94 (+22.0%)
Spot @ $3.23

CVGI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CVGI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Auto Parts:O.E.M. and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $3.23 (52-wk range $1.29 - $5.88), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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