Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MPAA

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Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$10.30 -3.29% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.22

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $195.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.22 (-0.78%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPAA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MPAA SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 11% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$10.42-1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$10.32-1.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$10.18+1.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$10.30+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (72) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MPAA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, MPAA faces multiple-compression risk if 16.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 17.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.79) or 200D SMA ($11.81) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.58) toward Bear Floor ($8.25).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPAA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MPAA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

4630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.41>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE11% OF RANGE

L: $9$10.30H: $18

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (20% profit margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on MPAA

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (55)

21.6% ROIC with 20.2% gross margin and 7.93% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (60)

Altman-Z 1.41 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (68)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 16/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MPAA

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MPAA Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MPAA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.20%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $10.33H $10.38L $10.09C $10.30VOL 51.9K

RES: $13.89SUP: $9.77SMA50: $10.79SMA200: $11.81

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MPAA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MPAA Butterfly Map → + Track MPAA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPAA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPAA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPAA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPAA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #309 of 1011 ⚔️ SRI vs MPAA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MPAA vs. SRI, STRT, CVGI, CAAS)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) ranks #309 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #698 by equity capitalization ($195.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRT leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while MPAA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.6% ROIC and 20.2% gross margin. STRT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with MPAA at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MPAA ACTIVE Motorcar Parts of America Inc.	C	64/100	16.3x	20.2%	21.6%	-3.29%	$195.0M	Benchmark Subject
SRI Stoneridge Inc.	D+	55/100	—	19.9%	-24.1%	+0.83%	$174.0M	/sri-vs-mpaa →
STRT STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION	C+	67/100	12.5x	16.5%	15.2%	+0.63%	$256.6M	/strt-vs-mpaa →
CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.	D-	41/100	—	10.5%	-0.2%	-1.22%	$131.2M	/cvgi-vs-mpaa →
CAAS China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share	D+	53/100	—	19.0%	16.3%	-2.04%	$130.3M	/caas-vs-mpaa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0000918251

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) reported GAAP revenue of $789.8M (+4.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $757.4M , and +10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $12.0M, operating cash flow of $19.2M, and free cash flow of $15.5M (-62.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPAA closed FY2025 with $991.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.41, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$789.8M	$12.0M	$19.2M	$15.5M	$991.3M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$757.4M	-$19.0M	$45.5M	$40.9M	$949.5M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$717.7M	-$49.0M	$39.2M	$39.2M	—	—

3. MPAA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MPAA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (NASDAQ: MPAA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $10.30 (-3.29% 1D, market cap $195.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MPAA ranks #309 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MPAA compare to SRI and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), MPAA carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of 20.2%, and ROIC of 21.6%. By comparison, SRI (Stoneridge Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $174.0M) and STRT (STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $256.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while MPAA leads on capital efficiency (21.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPAA?

Per MPAA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0000918251), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. generated $789.8M in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $12.0M in net income, and $15.5M in free cash flow against $991.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MPAA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPAA last traded at $10.30 (-3.29% on volume of 79,002 shares), positioning the stock -4.54% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.79) and -12.79% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.81). Across its 52-week range of $9.29 to $18.12, MPAA sits at the 11.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($9.55 to $11.05).

MPAA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MPAA stock right now?

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. Solid 20% profit margin (22% return on capital), mixed timing at 16x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is MPAA's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MPAA's 12-month base price target is $10.58 (range $8.25 to $19.03), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: MPAA RQD Cockpit MPAA 12M Forecast MPAA Earnings & Move MPAA Dividends & DRIP MPAA Insiders & 13F MPAA Whale Options MPAA Profit Sankey MPAA News & Why