Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MPAA / earnings

SRI (55) STRT (67) CVGI (41) CAAS (53) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.3% Move

$10.30 -3.29% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.22

Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $195.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.22 (-0.78%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPAA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MPAA SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 11% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 46 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$10.42-1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$10.32-1.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$10.18+1.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$10.30+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (72) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MPAA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, MPAA faces multiple-compression risk if 16.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 17.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.79) or 200D SMA ($11.81) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.58) toward Bear Floor ($8.25).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPAA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MPAA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 29, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.3% Swing Band

±$0.75 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MPAA Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 64/100

Trailing EPS: $0.63 • YoY Revenue Growth: 4.3%

Model Bullish Setup (64/100)Model Risk Weight (36/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2026-03-31	$789.8M	$12.0M	$15.5M	20.2%
FY 2024	2025-03-31	$757.4M	-$19.0M	$40.9M	20.3%
FY 2023	2024-03-31	$717.7M	-$49.0M	$39.2M	20.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MPAA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MPAA
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MPAA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.20%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $10.33H $10.38L $10.09C $10.30VOL 51.9K

RES: $13.89SUP: $9.77SMA50: $10.79SMA200: $11.81

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MPAA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MPAA Butterfly Map → + Track MPAA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

9.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPAA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPAA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPAA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPAA)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #309 of 1011 ⚔️ SRI vs MPAA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MPAA vs. SRI, STRT, CVGI, CAAS)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) ranks #309 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #698 by equity capitalization ($195.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRT leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while MPAA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.6% ROIC and 20.2% gross margin. STRT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with MPAA at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MPAA ACTIVE Motorcar Parts of America Inc.	C	64/100	16.3x	20.2%	21.6%	-3.29%	$195.0M	Benchmark Subject
SRI Stoneridge Inc.	D+	55/100	—	19.9%	-24.1%	+0.83%	$174.0M	/sri-vs-mpaa →
STRT STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION	C+	67/100	12.5x	16.5%	15.2%	+0.63%	$256.6M	/strt-vs-mpaa →
CVGI Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.	D-	41/100	—	10.5%	-0.2%	-1.22%	$131.2M	/cvgi-vs-mpaa →
CAAS China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share	D+	53/100	—	19.0%	16.3%	-2.04%	$130.3M	/caas-vs-mpaa →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-03-31 • CIK 0000918251

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA) reported GAAP revenue of $789.8M (+4.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $757.4M , and +10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $12.0M, operating cash flow of $19.2M, and free cash flow of $15.5M (-62.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPAA closed FY2025 with $991.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.41, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-03-31	$789.8M	$12.0M	$19.2M	$15.5M	$991.3M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-03-31	$757.4M	-$19.0M	$45.5M	$40.9M	$949.5M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-03-31	$717.7M	-$49.0M	$39.2M	$39.2M	—	—

3. MPAA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MPAA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (NASDAQ: MPAA) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $10.30 (-3.29% 1D, market cap $195.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MPAA ranks #309 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MPAA compare to SRI and STRT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), MPAA carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.3x, gross margin of 20.2%, and ROIC of 21.6%. By comparison, SRI (Stoneridge Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $174.0M) and STRT (STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION) posts a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $256.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while MPAA leads on capital efficiency (21.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPAA?

Per MPAA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-03-31, CIK 0000918251), Motorcar Parts of America Inc. generated $789.8M in revenue (+4.3% YoY), $12.0M in net income, and $15.5M in free cash flow against $991.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MPAA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MPAA last traded at $10.30 (-3.29% on volume of 79,002 shares), positioning the stock -4.54% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.79) and -12.79% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.81). Across its 52-week range of $9.29 to $18.12, MPAA sits at the 11.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($9.55 to $11.05).

MPAA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MPAA's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 29, 2026.

How much is MPAA stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.3% event move for MPAA, spanning a range between $9.55 and $11.05.

Direct Sub-Reports: MPAA RQD Cockpit MPAA 12M Forecast MPAA Earnings & Move MPAA Dividends & DRIP MPAA Insiders & 13F MPAA Whale Options MPAA Profit Sankey MPAA News & Why