Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / CVGI / forecast

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Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$3.23 -1.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.22

Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $131.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.22 (-0.41%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 5.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CVGI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CVGI SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.2% FCF Margin ($34.0M FCF) & 10.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.08 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.87+0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.88+0% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.88+12.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$3.23-7.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (33) → D- (41)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CVGI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CVGI currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.00) and Max Pain ($3.39) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.17.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CVGI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CVGI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CVGI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.23: 3096.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.32

$7,183

$-2,817 (-28.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.98

$9,226

$-774 (-7.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $6.17

$19,102

+$9,102 (+91.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$3	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$6	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$3	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CVGI)

✓Walkthrough of CVGI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CVGI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.73%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $3.16H $3.23L $3.08C $3.23VOL 349.0K

RES: $3.24SUP: $2.57SMA50: $3.00SMA200: $3.51

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CVGI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CVGI Butterfly Map → + Track CVGI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -10.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CVGI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CVGI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CVGI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CVGI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #808 of 1011 ⚔️ CAAS vs CVGI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (CVGI vs. CAAS, SRI, MPAA, STRT)

Industry: Auto Parts:O.E.M. (36 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) ranks #808 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #737 by equity capitalization ($131.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STRT leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while MPAA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.6% ROIC and 20.2% gross margin. STRT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with CVGI at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CVGI ACTIVE Commercial Vehicle Group Inc.	D-	41/100	—	10.5%	-0.2%	-1.22%	$131.2M	Benchmark Subject
CAAS China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share	D+	53/100	—	19.0%	16.3%	-2.04%	$130.3M	/caas-vs-cvgi →
SRI Stoneridge Inc.	D+	55/100	—	19.9%	-24.1%	+0.83%	$174.0M	/sri-vs-cvgi →
MPAA Motorcar Parts of America Inc.	C	64/100	16.3x	20.2%	21.6%	-3.29%	$195.0M	/mpaa-vs-cvgi →
STRT STRATTEC SECURITY CORPORATION	C+	67/100	12.5x	16.5%	15.2%	+0.63%	$256.6M	/strt-vs-cvgi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001290900

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) reported GAAP revenue of $649.0M (-10.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $723.4M , and -22.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$20.5M, operating cash flow of $44.6M, and free cash flow of $34.0M (+165.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, CVGI closed FY2025 with $391.7M in total assets against $104.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.08, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$649.0M	-$20.5M	$44.6M	$34.0M	$391.7M	$104.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$723.4M	-$35.7M	-$33.5M	-$52.0M	$424.6M	$127.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$835.5M	$49.4M	$38.3M	$38.3M	—	—

3. CVGI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CVGI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CVGI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $3.23 (-1.22% 1D, market cap $131.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, CVGI ranks #808 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CVGI compare to CAAS and SRI in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), CVGI carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 10.5%, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, CAAS (China Automotive Systems Inc. Ordinary Share) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 16.3%, cap $130.3M) and SRI (Stoneridge Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -24.1%, cap $174.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, STRT leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while MPAA leads on capital efficiency (21.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVGI?

Per CVGI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001290900), Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. generated $649.0M in revenue (-10.3% YoY), -$20.5M in net income, and $34.0M in free cash flow against $391.7M in total assets and $104.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CVGI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CVGI last traded at $3.23 (-1.22% on volume of 267,751 shares), positioning the stock +7.67% above its 50-day simple moving average ($3.00) and -7.98% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.51). Across its 52-week range of $1.29 to $5.88, CVGI sits at the 42.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.6% ($2.86 to $3.60).

CVGI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CVGI's 12-month stock price target?

Commercial Vehicle Group Inc. (CVGI) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $2.98 (-7.7% from $3.23), with a bull-case target of $6.17 and a bear-case floor of $2.32.