Stock Ratings / Real Estate / JOE / earnings

IRS (55) AXR (76) MTH (59) CVCO (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

St. Joe Company (JOE) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.5% Move

$71.80 +5.39% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.67

St. Joe Company (JOE) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (43% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $4.06B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on JOE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JOE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-01, St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $71.80 (+5.39% 1D, market cap $4.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, JOE ranks #8 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JOE compare to IRS and AXR in the Real Estate sector?

▼

Within the Real Estate sector (Homebuilding), JOE carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 35.1x, gross margin of 43.1%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, IRS (IRSA Inversiones Y Representaciones S.A. Global )) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.24B) and AXR (AMREP Corporation) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $112.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTH leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while JOE leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOE?

▼

Per JOE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000745308), St. Joe Company generated $513.2M in revenue (+27.4% YoY), $115.6M in net income, and $186.6M in free cash flow against $1.52B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (43% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.67 (+1.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 36.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JOE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY JOE SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 36.4% FCF Margin ($186.6M FCF) & 43.1% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.43 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$64.86+5.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$68.41-1.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$67.57+6.3% Next Q

Current

Grade B$71.80+7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (67) → B (75)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the JOE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, JOE faces multiple-compression risk if 35.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 40.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($66.51) or 200D SMA ($66.00) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($77.29) toward Bear Floor ($58.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JOE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “JOE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.5% Swing Band

±$3.95 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

JOE Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 75/100

Trailing EPS: $2.05 • YoY Revenue Growth: 27.4%

Model Bullish Setup (75/100)Model Risk Weight (25/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$513.2M	$115.6M	$186.6M	43.1%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$402.7M	$74.2M	$100.2M	41.5%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$389.3M	$77.7M	$103.8M	43.1%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating JOE & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on JOE
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

JOE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.20%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $71.85H $72.12L $68.63C $71.80VOL 372.3K

RES: $73.54SUP: $64.88SMA50: $66.51SMA200: $66.00

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JOE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 JOE Butterfly Map → + Track JOE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

27.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +27.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JOE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JOE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JOE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JOE)

Real Estate Rank #8 of 51 ⚔️ IRS vs JOE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Real Estate Peer Comparison (JOE vs. IRS, AXR, MTH, CVCO)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 51 tracked Real Estate securities in the Roarable RQD universe, St. Joe Company (JOE) ranks #8 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #8 by equity capitalization ($4.06B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTH leads on earnings valuation at 9.3x trailing P/E, while JOE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 43.1% gross margin. AXR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with JOE at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
JOE ACTIVE St. Joe Company	B	75/100	35.1x	43.1%	18.1%	+5.39%	$4.06B	Benchmark Subject
IRS IRSA Inversiones Y Representaciones S.A. Global )	D+	55/100	—	—	—	+1.31%	$1.24B	/irs-vs-joe →
AXR AMREP Corporation	B+	76/100	10.8x	—	11.0%	+0.62%	$112.4M	/axr-vs-joe →
MTH Meritage Homes Corporation	C-	59/100	9.3x	—	8.0%	+3.98%	$4.20B	/mth-vs-joe →
CVCO Cavco Industries Inc.	B-	70/100	22.0x	23.5%	17.6%	+2.76%	$4.21B	/cvco-vs-joe →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000745308

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), St. Joe Company (JOE) reported GAAP revenue of $513.2M (+27.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $402.7M , and +31.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $115.6M, operating cash flow of $190.7M, and free cash flow of $186.6M (+86.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, JOE closed FY2025 with $1.52B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.43, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$513.2M	$115.6M	$190.7M	$186.6M	$1.52B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$402.7M	$74.2M	$108.0M	$100.2M	$1.54B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$389.3M	$77.7M	$103.8M	$103.8M	—	—

3. JOE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JOE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does JOE compare to IRS and AXR in the Real Estate sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOE?

Where is JOE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JOE last traded at $71.80 (+5.39% on volume of 311,224 shares), positioning the stock +7.95% above its 50-day simple moving average ($66.51) and +8.79% above its 200-day simple moving average ($66.00). Across its 52-week range of $55.61 to $73.54, JOE sits at the 90.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($67.85 to $75.75).