Stock Ratings / Real Estate / JOE / dividends

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St. Joe Company (JOE) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$71.80 +5.39% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.67

St. Joe Company (JOE) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (43% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $4.06B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $72.67 (+1.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 36.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JOE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY JOE SCORES 75/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 36.4% FCF Margin ($186.6M FCF) & 43.1% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.43 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$64.86+5.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$68.41-1.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$67.57+6.3% Next Q

Current

Grade B$71.80+7.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (67) → B (75)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the JOE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, JOE faces multiple-compression risk if 35.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 40.6% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($66.51) or 200D SMA ($66.00) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($77.29) toward Bear Floor ($58.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JOE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “JOE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

2.63% Total Yield

0.83% Cash ($0.60/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

14% of FCF

8 consecutive years of payout growth

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (17.1% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $48,481

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $1,275/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$11.7K

Yr 1

$13.7K

Yr 2

$16.1K

Yr 3

$18.8K

Yr 4

$22.0K

Yr 5

$25.8K

Yr 6

$30.2K

Yr 7

$35.4K

Yr 8

$41.4K

Yr 9

$48.5K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in JOE & A-Rated Leaders

✓12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on JOE and its top sector peer
✓Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

JOE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.20%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $71.85H $72.12L $68.63C $71.80VOL 372.3K

RES: $73.54SUP: $64.88SMA50: $66.51SMA200: $66.00

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JOE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 JOE Butterfly Map → + Track JOE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

27.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +27.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JOE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JOE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JOE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JOE)

Real Estate Rank #8 of 51 ⚔️ IRS vs JOE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Real Estate Peer Comparison (JOE vs. IRS, AXR, MTH, CVCO)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 51 tracked Real Estate securities in the Roarable RQD universe, St. Joe Company (JOE) ranks #8 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #8 by equity capitalization ($4.06B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTH leads on earnings valuation at 9.3x trailing P/E, while JOE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.1% ROIC and 43.1% gross margin. AXR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with JOE at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
JOE ACTIVE St. Joe Company	B	75/100	35.1x	43.1%	18.1%	+5.39%	$4.06B	Benchmark Subject
IRS IRSA Inversiones Y Representaciones S.A. Global )	D+	55/100	—	—	—	+1.31%	$1.24B	/irs-vs-joe →
AXR AMREP Corporation	B+	76/100	10.8x	—	11.0%	+0.62%	$112.4M	/axr-vs-joe →
MTH Meritage Homes Corporation	C-	59/100	9.3x	—	8.0%	+3.98%	$4.20B	/mth-vs-joe →
CVCO Cavco Industries Inc.	B-	70/100	22.0x	23.5%	17.6%	+2.76%	$4.21B	/cvco-vs-joe →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000745308

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), St. Joe Company (JOE) reported GAAP revenue of $513.2M (+27.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $402.7M , and +31.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $115.6M, operating cash flow of $190.7M, and free cash flow of $186.6M (+86.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, JOE closed FY2025 with $1.52B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.43, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$513.2M	$115.6M	$190.7M	$186.6M	$1.52B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$402.7M	$74.2M	$108.0M	$100.2M	$1.54B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$389.3M	$77.7M	$103.8M	$103.8M	—	—

3. JOE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JOE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $71.80 (+5.39% 1D, market cap $4.06B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, JOE ranks #8 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JOE compare to IRS and AXR in the Real Estate sector?

Within the Real Estate sector (Homebuilding), JOE carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 35.1x, gross margin of 43.1%, and ROIC of 18.1%. By comparison, IRS (IRSA Inversiones Y Representaciones S.A. Global )) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.24B) and AXR (AMREP Corporation) posts a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $112.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTH leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while JOE leads on capital efficiency (18.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JOE?

Per JOE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000745308), St. Joe Company generated $513.2M in revenue (+27.4% YoY), $115.6M in net income, and $186.6M in free cash flow against $1.52B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (43% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JOE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JOE last traded at $71.80 (+5.39% on volume of 311,224 shares), positioning the stock +7.95% above its 50-day simple moving average ($66.51) and +8.79% above its 200-day simple moving average ($66.00). Across its 52-week range of $55.61 to $73.54, JOE sits at the 90.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($67.85 to $75.75).

JOE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does JOE pay a dividend and is it safe?

St. Joe Company (JOE) offers a 0.83% cash dividend yield ($0.60 annualized) and 2.63% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

Direct Sub-Reports: JOE RQD Cockpit JOE 12M Forecast JOE Earnings & Move JOE Dividends & DRIP JOE Insiders & 13F JOE Whale Options JOE Profit Sankey JOE News & Why