Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GEO

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Geo Group Inc (GEO) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$28.54 +3.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.67

Geo Group Inc (GEO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.76B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.67 (+0.44%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GEO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GEO SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 78% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 9.8% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$31.13-7.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$28.66-4.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$27.36+4.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$28.54-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GEO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GEO currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($30.55) and Max Pain ($29.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $34.83.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GEO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GEO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

45.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE78% OF RANGE

L: $13$28.54H: $33

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on GEO

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (35)

6.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -3.32% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (53)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GEO

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GEO)

✓Walkthrough of GEO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GEO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +54.19%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $28.13H $28.62L $27.62C $28.54VOL 1.67M

RES: $33.18SUP: $25.86SMA50: $30.55SMA200: $24.26

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GEO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GEO Butterfly Map → + Track GEO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

6.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GEO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GEO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GEO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GEO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #656 of 1011 ⚔️ MTH vs GEO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GEO vs. MTH, CVCO, MHO, SKY)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Geo Group Inc (GEO) ranks #656 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #326 by equity capitalization ($3.76B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MHO leads on earnings valuation at 8.0x trailing P/E, while SKY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.8% ROIC and 26.4% gross margin. SKY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with GEO at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GEO ACTIVE Geo Group Inc	D	49/100	14.8x	—	6.6%	+3.52%	$3.76B	Benchmark Subject
MTH Meritage Homes Corporation	C-	59/100	9.3x	—	8.0%	+3.98%	$4.20B	/mth-vs-geo →
CVCO Cavco Industries Inc.	B-	70/100	22.0x	23.5%	17.6%	+2.76%	$4.21B	/cvco-vs-geo →
MHO M/I Homes Inc.	C	65/100	8.0x	23.0%	12.6%	+3.84%	$3.21B	/mho-vs-geo →
SKY Champion Homes Inc.	B	72/100	21.3x	26.4%	20.8%	+2.48%	$4.40B	/sky-vs-geo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000923796

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Geo Group Inc (GEO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.63B (+8.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.42B , and +9.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $254.4M, operating cash flow of $72.6M, and free cash flow of -$124.9M (-176.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, GEO closed FY2025 with $3.84B in total assets against $1.65B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.63B	$254.4M	$72.6M	-$124.9M	$3.84B	$1.65B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.42B	$32.0M	$242.2M	$163.5M	$3.63B	$1.71B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.41B	$107.3M	$277.8M	$277.8M	—	—

3. GEO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GEO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Geo Group Inc (NYSE: GEO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $28.54 (+3.52% 1D, market cap $3.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GEO ranks #656 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GEO compare to MTH and CVCO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), GEO carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.6%. By comparison, MTH (Meritage Homes Corporation) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 9.3x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $4.20B) and CVCO (Cavco Industries Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 22.0x, ROIC 17.6%, cap $4.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MHO leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while SKY leads on capital efficiency (20.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GEO?

Per GEO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000923796), Geo Group Inc generated $2.63B in revenue (+8.6% YoY), $254.4M in net income, and -$124.9M in free cash flow against $3.84B in total assets and $1.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GEO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GEO last traded at $28.54 (+3.52% on volume of 1,716,165 shares), positioning the stock -6.58% below its 50-day simple moving average ($30.55) and +17.64% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.26). Across its 52-week range of $12.51 to $33.17, GEO sits at the 77.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.3% ($25.89 to $31.19).

GEO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell GEO stock right now?

Geo Group Inc (GEO) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 49/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 15x P/E (7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is GEO's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

GEO's 12-month base price target is $27.38 (range $21.36 to $34.83), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: GEO RQD Cockpit GEO 12M Forecast GEO Earnings & Move GEO Dividends & DRIP GEO Insiders & 13F GEO Whale Options GEO Profit Sankey GEO News & Why