Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GEO / earnings

MTH (59) CVCO (70) MHO (65) SKY (72) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Geo Group Inc (GEO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.3% Move

$28.54 +3.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.67

Geo Group Inc (GEO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.76B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.67 (+0.44%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GEO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GEO SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 78% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 9.8% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$31.13-7.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$28.66-4.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$27.36+4.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$28.54-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GEO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GEO currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($30.55) and Max Pain ($29.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $34.83.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GEO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GEO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.3% Swing Band

±$2.65 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

GEO Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 49/100

Trailing EPS: $1.93 • YoY Revenue Growth: 8.6%

Model Bullish Setup (49/100)Model Risk Weight (51/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$2.63B	$254.4M	-$124.9M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$2.42B	$32.0M	$163.5M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$2.41B	$107.3M	$277.8M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GEO)

✓Walkthrough of GEO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GEO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +54.19%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $28.13H $28.62L $27.62C $28.54VOL 1.67M

RES: $33.18SUP: $25.86SMA50: $30.55SMA200: $24.26

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GEO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GEO Butterfly Map → + Track GEO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

6.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GEO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GEO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GEO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GEO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #656 of 1011 ⚔️ MTH vs GEO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GEO vs. MTH, CVCO, MHO, SKY)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Geo Group Inc (GEO) ranks #656 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #326 by equity capitalization ($3.76B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MHO leads on earnings valuation at 8.0x trailing P/E, while SKY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.8% ROIC and 26.4% gross margin. SKY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with GEO at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GEO ACTIVE Geo Group Inc	D	49/100	14.8x	—	6.6%	+3.52%	$3.76B	Benchmark Subject
MTH Meritage Homes Corporation	C-	59/100	9.3x	—	8.0%	+3.98%	$4.20B	/mth-vs-geo →
CVCO Cavco Industries Inc.	B-	70/100	22.0x	23.5%	17.6%	+2.76%	$4.21B	/cvco-vs-geo →
MHO M/I Homes Inc.	C	65/100	8.0x	23.0%	12.6%	+3.84%	$3.21B	/mho-vs-geo →
SKY Champion Homes Inc.	B	72/100	21.3x	26.4%	20.8%	+2.48%	$4.40B	/sky-vs-geo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000923796

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Geo Group Inc (GEO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.63B (+8.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.42B , and +9.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $254.4M, operating cash flow of $72.6M, and free cash flow of -$124.9M (-176.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, GEO closed FY2025 with $3.84B in total assets against $1.65B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.63B	$254.4M	$72.6M	-$124.9M	$3.84B	$1.65B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.42B	$32.0M	$242.2M	$163.5M	$3.63B	$1.71B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.41B	$107.3M	$277.8M	$277.8M	—	—

3. GEO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GEO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Geo Group Inc (NYSE: GEO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $28.54 (+3.52% 1D, market cap $3.76B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GEO ranks #656 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GEO compare to MTH and CVCO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), GEO carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.6%. By comparison, MTH (Meritage Homes Corporation) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 9.3x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $4.20B) and CVCO (Cavco Industries Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 22.0x, ROIC 17.6%, cap $4.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MHO leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while SKY leads on capital efficiency (20.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GEO?

Per GEO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000923796), Geo Group Inc generated $2.63B in revenue (+8.6% YoY), $254.4M in net income, and -$124.9M in free cash flow against $3.84B in total assets and $1.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GEO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GEO last traded at $28.54 (+3.52% on volume of 1,716,165 shares), positioning the stock -6.58% below its 50-day simple moving average ($30.55) and +17.64% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.26). Across its 52-week range of $12.51 to $33.17, GEO sits at the 77.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.3% ($25.89 to $31.19).

GEO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is GEO's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Geo Group Inc (GEO)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is GEO stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±9.3% event move for GEO, spanning a range between $25.89 and $31.19.

Direct Sub-Reports: GEO RQD Cockpit GEO 12M Forecast GEO Earnings & Move GEO Dividends & DRIP GEO Insiders & 13F GEO Whale Options GEO Profit Sankey GEO News & Why