MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why GRBK Stock slipped -0.62% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$62.53 -0.62% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $62.34
Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $2.65B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $62.34 (-0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 10.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GRBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GRBK SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (26% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10.2% FCF Margin ($208.4M FCF) & 31.4% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$62.86-2.7% Next Q
73
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B$61.17+5.3% Next Q
70
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$64.42-2.9% Next Q
68
CurrentGrade C$62.53+1.3% Hist 90D α
65
Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GRBK Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 65/100 (C) score, GRBK faces multiple-compression risk if 7.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 28.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($66.73) or 200D SMA ($69.51) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($64.50) toward Bear Floor ($50.31).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GRBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GRBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why GRBK Stock slipped -0.62% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) slipped -0.62% to $62.53, trading at 14% of its 52-week range ($59.12 – $83.18). Solid 31% profit margin (19% return on capital), mixed timing at 8x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 14% of its 52-week range ($59.12 – $83.18) with RSI-14 at 38.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.7% around $62.53 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 31.4% gross margin and $208.4M annual free cash flow.
Live GRBK Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (GRBK Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
GRBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.28%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $63.22H $63.95L $60.69C $62.53VOL 404.4K
RES: $66.45SUP: $57.08SMA50: $66.73SMA200: $69.51
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
GRBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-6.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GRBK today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GRBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GRBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GRBK)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #281 of 1011
⚔️ KBH vs GRBK Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GRBK vs. KBH, MHO, GEO, MTH)
Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) ranks #281 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #382 by equity capitalization ($2.65B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KBH leads on earnings valuation at 6.8x trailing P/E, while GRBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.5% ROIC and 31.4% gross margin. GRBK currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK
ACTIVE
Green Brick Partners Inc. | C | 65/100 | 7.7x | 31.4% | 18.5% | -0.62% | $2.65B | Benchmark Subject |
| KBH KB Home | C- | 60/100 | 6.8x | — | 11.0% | +3.23% | $2.90B | /kbh-vs-grbk → |
| MHO M/I Homes Inc. | C | 65/100 | 8.0x | 23.0% | 12.6% | +3.84% | $3.21B | /mho-vs-grbk → |
| GEO Geo Group Inc | D | 49/100 | 14.8x | — | 6.6% | +3.52% | $3.76B | /geo-vs-grbk → |
| MTH Meritage Homes Corporation | C- | 59/100 | 9.3x | — | 8.0% | +3.98% | $4.20B | /mth-vs-grbk → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001373670In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) reported GAAP revenue of $2.04B (-1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.06B , and +16.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $343.5M, operating cash flow of $213.2M, and free cash flow of $208.4M (+867.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, GRBK closed FY2025 with $2.53B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.04B | $343.5M | $213.2M | $208.4M | $2.53B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.06B | $417.2M | $25.9M | $21.5M | $2.25B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.75B | $306.7M | $213.3M | $213.3M | — | — |
3. GRBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs GRBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Green Brick Partners Inc. (NYSE: GRBK) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $62.53 (-0.62% 1D, market cap $2.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GRBK ranks #281 in composite RQD confidence.
How does GRBK compare to KBH and MHO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), GRBK carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.7x, gross margin of 31.4%, and ROIC of 18.5%. By comparison, KBH (KB Home) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $2.90B) and MHO (M/I Homes Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 8.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $3.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBH leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GRBK leads on capital efficiency (18.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRBK?
Per GRBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001373670), Green Brick Partners Inc. generated $2.04B in revenue (-1.0% YoY), $343.5M in net income, and $208.4M in free cash flow against $2.53B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (31% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is GRBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
GRBK last traded at $62.53 (-0.62% on volume of 378,696 shares), positioning the stock -6.29% below its 50-day simple moving average ($66.73) and -10.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($69.51). Across its 52-week range of $59.12 to $83.18, GRBK sits at the 14.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($58.34 to $66.72).
GRBK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is GRBK stock moving today?
Why GRBK Stock slipped -0.62% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 31% profit margin (19% return on capital), mixed timing at 8x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.