Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GRBK / forecast

KBH (60) MHO (65) GEO (49) MTH (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$62.53 -0.62% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $62.34

Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.65B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $62.34 (-0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 10.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GRBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GRBK SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10.2% FCF Margin ($208.4M FCF) & 31.4% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$62.86-2.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$61.17+5.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$64.42-2.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C$62.53+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GRBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, GRBK faces multiple-compression risk if 7.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 28.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($66.73) or 200D SMA ($69.51) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($64.50) toward Bear Floor ($50.31).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GRBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GRBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your GRBK Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $62.53: 159.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $50.31

$8,046

$-1,954 (-19.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $64.50

$10,315

+$315 (+3.2%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $87.34

$13,968

+$3,968 (+39.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$67	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$82	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$57	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (GRBK Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GRBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.28%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $63.22H $63.95L $60.69C $62.53VOL 404.4K

RES: $66.45SUP: $57.08SMA50: $66.73SMA200: $69.51

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GRBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GRBK Butterfly Map → + Track GRBK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-6.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GRBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GRBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GRBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GRBK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #281 of 1011 ⚔️ KBH vs GRBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GRBK vs. KBH, MHO, GEO, MTH)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) ranks #281 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #382 by equity capitalization ($2.65B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KBH leads on earnings valuation at 6.8x trailing P/E, while GRBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.5% ROIC and 31.4% gross margin. GRBK currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GRBK ACTIVE Green Brick Partners Inc.	C	65/100	7.7x	31.4%	18.5%	-0.62%	$2.65B	Benchmark Subject
KBH KB Home	C-	60/100	6.8x	—	11.0%	+3.23%	$2.90B	/kbh-vs-grbk →
MHO M/I Homes Inc.	C	65/100	8.0x	23.0%	12.6%	+3.84%	$3.21B	/mho-vs-grbk →
GEO Geo Group Inc	D	49/100	14.8x	—	6.6%	+3.52%	$3.76B	/geo-vs-grbk →
MTH Meritage Homes Corporation	C-	59/100	9.3x	—	8.0%	+3.98%	$4.20B	/mth-vs-grbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001373670

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) reported GAAP revenue of $2.04B (-1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.06B , and +16.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $343.5M, operating cash flow of $213.2M, and free cash flow of $208.4M (+867.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, GRBK closed FY2025 with $2.53B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.04B	$343.5M	$213.2M	$208.4M	$2.53B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.06B	$417.2M	$25.9M	$21.5M	$2.25B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.75B	$306.7M	$213.3M	$213.3M	—	—

3. GRBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GRBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Green Brick Partners Inc. (NYSE: GRBK) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $62.53 (-0.62% 1D, market cap $2.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GRBK ranks #281 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GRBK compare to KBH and MHO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), GRBK carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.7x, gross margin of 31.4%, and ROIC of 18.5%. By comparison, KBH (KB Home) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $2.90B) and MHO (M/I Homes Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 8.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $3.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBH leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GRBK leads on capital efficiency (18.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRBK?

Per GRBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001373670), Green Brick Partners Inc. generated $2.04B in revenue (-1.0% YoY), $343.5M in net income, and $208.4M in free cash flow against $2.53B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (31% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GRBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GRBK last traded at $62.53 (-0.62% on volume of 378,696 shares), positioning the stock -6.29% below its 50-day simple moving average ($66.73) and -10.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($69.51). Across its 52-week range of $59.12 to $83.18, GRBK sits at the 14.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($58.34 to $66.72).

GRBK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is GRBK's 12-month stock price target?

Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $64.5 (+3.2% from $62.53), with a bull-case target of $87.34 and a bear-case floor of $50.31.

Is GRBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates GRBK C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 65/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: GRBK RQD Cockpit GRBK 12M Forecast GRBK Earnings & Move GRBK Dividends & DRIP GRBK Insiders & 13F GRBK Whale Options GRBK Profit Sankey GRBK News & Why