Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GRBK / earnings

KBH (60) MHO (65) GEO (49) MTH (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.7% Move

$62.53 -0.62% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $62.34

Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.65B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $62.34 (-0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 10.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GRBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GRBK SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10.2% FCF Margin ($208.4M FCF) & 31.4% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$62.86-2.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$61.17+5.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$64.42-2.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C$62.53+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GRBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, GRBK faces multiple-compression risk if 7.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 28.9% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($66.73) or 200D SMA ($69.51) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($64.50) toward Bear Floor ($50.31).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GRBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GRBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.7% Swing Band

±$4.19 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

GRBK Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 65/100

Trailing EPS: $8.10 • YoY Revenue Growth: -1%

Model Bullish Setup (65/100)Model Risk Weight (35/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$2.04B	$343.5M	$208.4M	31.4%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$2.06B	$417.2M	$21.5M	34.1%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$1.75B	$306.7M	$213.3M	31.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating GRBK & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on GRBK
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GRBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.28%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $63.22H $63.95L $60.69C $62.53VOL 404.4K

RES: $66.45SUP: $57.08SMA50: $66.73SMA200: $69.51

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GRBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GRBK Butterfly Map → + Track GRBK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-6.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GRBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GRBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GRBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GRBK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #281 of 1011 ⚔️ KBH vs GRBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GRBK vs. KBH, MHO, GEO, MTH)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) ranks #281 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #382 by equity capitalization ($2.65B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KBH leads on earnings valuation at 6.8x trailing P/E, while GRBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.5% ROIC and 31.4% gross margin. GRBK currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GRBK ACTIVE Green Brick Partners Inc.	C	65/100	7.7x	31.4%	18.5%	-0.62%	$2.65B	Benchmark Subject
KBH KB Home	C-	60/100	6.8x	—	11.0%	+3.23%	$2.90B	/kbh-vs-grbk →
MHO M/I Homes Inc.	C	65/100	8.0x	23.0%	12.6%	+3.84%	$3.21B	/mho-vs-grbk →
GEO Geo Group Inc	D	49/100	14.8x	—	6.6%	+3.52%	$3.76B	/geo-vs-grbk →
MTH Meritage Homes Corporation	C-	59/100	9.3x	—	8.0%	+3.98%	$4.20B	/mth-vs-grbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001373670

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK) reported GAAP revenue of $2.04B (-1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.06B , and +16.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $343.5M, operating cash flow of $213.2M, and free cash flow of $208.4M (+867.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, GRBK closed FY2025 with $2.53B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.04B	$343.5M	$213.2M	$208.4M	$2.53B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.06B	$417.2M	$25.9M	$21.5M	$2.25B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.75B	$306.7M	$213.3M	$213.3M	—	—

3. GRBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GRBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Green Brick Partners Inc. (NYSE: GRBK) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $62.53 (-0.62% 1D, market cap $2.65B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GRBK ranks #281 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GRBK compare to KBH and MHO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), GRBK carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.7x, gross margin of 31.4%, and ROIC of 18.5%. By comparison, KBH (KB Home) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 6.8x, ROIC 11.0%, cap $2.90B) and MHO (M/I Homes Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 8.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $3.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBH leads on earnings multiple (6.8x) while GRBK leads on capital efficiency (18.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GRBK?

Per GRBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001373670), Green Brick Partners Inc. generated $2.04B in revenue (-1.0% YoY), $343.5M in net income, and $208.4M in free cash flow against $2.53B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (31% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GRBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GRBK last traded at $62.53 (-0.62% on volume of 378,696 shares), positioning the stock -6.29% below its 50-day simple moving average ($66.73) and -10.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($69.51). Across its 52-week range of $59.12 to $83.18, GRBK sits at the 14.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.7% ($58.34 to $66.72).

GRBK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is GRBK's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Green Brick Partners Inc. (GRBK)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is GRBK stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.7% event move for GRBK, spanning a range between $58.34 and $66.72.

Direct Sub-Reports: GRBK RQD Cockpit GRBK 12M Forecast GRBK Earnings & Move GRBK Dividends & DRIP GRBK Insiders & 13F GRBK Whale Options GRBK Profit Sankey GRBK News & Why