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Why GHG Stock surged +2.52% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$0.99 +2.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.99
GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (GHG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $99.9M
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Is GHG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (NYSE: GHG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $0.99 (+2.52% 1D, market cap $99.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GHG ranks #531 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does GHG compare to MSC and PUSA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), GHG carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 4.2x, gross margin of 34.9%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, MSC (Studio City International Holdings Limited each representing four (Class A)) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.3%, cap $165.4M) and PUSA (Powerus Corporation) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.8%, cap $305.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GHG leads on earnings multiple (4.2x) while GHG leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GHG?
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Per GHG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001724755), GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share generated $156.9M in revenue (-14.7% YoY), $23.9M in net income, and $2.9M in free cash flow against $684.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.99 (+0.26%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 1.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GHG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GHG SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (33% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (23% of score)
Altman Z-Score 0.49 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$0.97-3.1% Next Q
44
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$0.94+5.3% Next Q
47
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$0.99+0% Next Q
49
CurrentGrade D+$0.99-1.1% Hist 90D α
52
Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GHG Turnaround Squeeze
While GHG currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.01) and Max Pain ($1.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.14.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GHG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GHG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why GHG Stock surged +2.52% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (GHG) surged +2.52% to $0.99, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($0.91 – $2.04). Stretched risk/reward at 4x P/E (85% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($0.91 – $2.04) with RSI-14 at 49.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $0.99 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 34.9% gross margin and $2.9M annual free cash flow.
Live GHG Headlines & Catalysts
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GHG)
- ✓Walkthrough of GHG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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GHG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.16%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $0.97H $0.99L $0.97C $0.99VOL 53.2K
RES: $1.04SUP: $0.88SMA50: $1.01SMA200: $1.19
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
GHG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -14.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GHG today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GHG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GHG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GHG)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #531 of 1011
⚔️ MSC vs GHG Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GHG vs. MSC, PUSA, CVEO, FLL)
Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (GHG) ranks #531 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #758 by equity capitalization ($99.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GHG leads on earnings valuation at 4.2x trailing P/E, while GHG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 34.9% gross margin. GHG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 52/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GHG
ACTIVE
GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share | D+ | 52/100 | 4.2x | 34.9% | 85.0% | +2.52% | $99.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| MSC Studio City International Holdings Limited each representing four (Class A) | E | 28/100 | — | — | 2.3% | -0.63% | $165.4M | /msc-vs-ghg → |
| PUSA Powerus Corporation | E | 26/100 | — | — | -22.8% | +0.56% | $305.6M | /pusa-vs-ghg → |
| CVEO Civeo Corporation (Canada) | E | 30/100 | — | 23.7% | 0.9% | +1.09% | $315.8M | /cveo-vs-ghg → |
| FLL Full House Resorts Inc. | E | 21/100 | — | 93.3% | 0.6% | -6.46% | $29.3M | /fll-vs-ghg → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001724755In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (GHG) reported GAAP revenue of $156.9M (-14.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $184.1M , and -31.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $23.9M, operating cash flow of $40.2M, and free cash flow of $2.9M (-92.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, GHG closed FY2025 with $684.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.49, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $156.9M | $23.9M | $40.2M | $2.9M | $684.4M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $184.1M | $15.1M | $51.2M | $40.2M | $677.8M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $229.2M | $37.9M | $64.1M | $64.1M | — | — |
3. GHG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs GHG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (NYSE: GHG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $0.99 (+2.52% 1D, market cap $99.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GHG ranks #531 in composite RQD confidence.
How does GHG compare to MSC and PUSA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), GHG carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 4.2x, gross margin of 34.9%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, MSC (Studio City International Holdings Limited each representing four (Class A)) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.3%, cap $165.4M) and PUSA (Powerus Corporation) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.8%, cap $305.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GHG leads on earnings multiple (4.2x) while GHG leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GHG?
Per GHG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001724755), GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share generated $156.9M in revenue (-14.7% YoY), $23.9M in net income, and $2.9M in free cash flow against $684.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is GHG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
GHG last traded at $0.99 (+2.52% on volume of 53,233 shares), positioning the stock -1.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.01) and -16.81% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.19). Across its 52-week range of $0.91 to $2.04, GHG sits at the 7.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.11).
GHG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is GHG stock moving today?
Why GHG Stock surged +2.52% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 4x P/E (85% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.