Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GHG / forecast

MSC (42) PUSA (39) CVEO (42) FLL (29) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (GHG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$0.99 +2.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.99

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (GHG) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $99.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GHG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GHG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

▼

As of 2026-11-01, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (NYSE: GHG) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $0.99 (+2.52% 1D, market cap $99.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GHG ranks #311 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GHG compare to MSC and PUSA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), GHG carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 4.2x, gross margin of 34.9%, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, MSC (Studio City International Holdings Limited each representing four (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.3%, cap $165.4M) and PUSA (Powerus Corporation) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.8%, cap $305.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GHG leads on earnings multiple (4.2x) while GHG leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GHG?

▼

Per GHG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001724755), GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share generated $156.9M in revenue (-14.7% YoY), $23.9M in net income, and $2.9M in free cash flow against $684.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.99 (+0.26%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 1.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GHG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GHG SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 5.2% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$0.98-4.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$0.94+6.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$1.00-1% Next Q

Current

Grade C$0.99+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GHG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, GHG faces multiple-compression risk if 4.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 32.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($1.02) or 200D SMA ($1.19) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($1.02) toward Bear Floor ($0.80).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GHG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GHG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your GHG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $0.99: 10101.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $0.80

$8,081

$-1,919 (-19.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $1.02

$10,303

+$303 (+3.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $2.14

$21,616

+$11,616 (+116.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$1	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$2	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$1	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (GHG Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GHG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.18%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $0.95H $1.00L $0.93C $0.99VOL 68.0K

RES: $1.04SUP: $0.88SMA50: $1.02SMA200: $1.19

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GHG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GHG Butterfly Map → + Track GHG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-15.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -14.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GHG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GHG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GHG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GHG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #311 of 1011 ⚔️ MSC vs GHG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GHG vs. MSC, PUSA, CVEO, FLL)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (GHG) ranks #311 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #758 by equity capitalization ($99.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GHG leads on earnings valuation at 4.2x trailing P/E, while GHG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 34.9% gross margin. GHG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GHG ACTIVE GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share	C	64/100	4.2x	34.9%	85.0%	+2.52%	$99.9M	Benchmark Subject
MSC Studio City International Holdings Limited each representing four (Class A)	D-	42/100	—	—	2.3%	-0.63%	$165.4M	/msc-vs-ghg →
PUSA Powerus Corporation	D-	39/100	—	—	-22.8%	+0.56%	$305.6M	/pusa-vs-ghg →
CVEO Civeo Corporation (Canada)	D-	42/100	—	23.7%	0.9%	+1.09%	$315.8M	/cveo-vs-ghg →
FLL Full House Resorts Inc.	E	29/100	—	93.3%	0.6%	-6.46%	$29.3M	/fll-vs-ghg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001724755

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (GHG) reported GAAP revenue of $156.9M (-14.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $184.1M , and -31.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $23.9M, operating cash flow of $40.2M, and free cash flow of $2.9M (-92.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, GHG closed FY2025 with $684.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.49, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$156.9M	$23.9M	$40.2M	$2.9M	$684.4M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$184.1M	$15.1M	$51.2M	$40.2M	$677.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$229.2M	$37.9M	$64.1M	$64.1M	—	—

3. GHG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GHG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GHG compare to MSC and PUSA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GHG?

Where is GHG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GHG last traded at $0.99 (+2.52% on volume of 53,233 shares), positioning the stock -2.94% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.02) and -16.81% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.19). Across its 52-week range of $0.91 to $2.04, GHG sits at the 7.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.11).

GHG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is GHG's 12-month stock price target?

GreenTree Hospitality Group Ltd. each representing one Class A ordinary share (GHG) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $1.02 (+3% from $0.99), with a bull-case target of $2.14 and a bear-case floor of $0.8.

Is GHG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates GHG C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 64/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: GHG RQD Cockpit GHG 12M Forecast GHG Earnings & Move GHG Dividends & DRIP GHG Insiders & 13F GHG Whale Options GHG Profit Sankey GHG News & Why