Stock Ratings / Financials / ESRT / earnings

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Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (ESRT) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.7% Move

$5.05 +1.61% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.06

Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (ESRT) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $869.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.06 (+0.10%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 32.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ESRT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ESRT SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 31% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 63 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.7% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$4.63-0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$4.62+8.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$5.01+0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$5.05-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ESRT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, ESRT faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($4.49) or 200D SMA ($5.30) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($5.03) toward Bear Floor ($3.92).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ESRT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ESRT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.7% Swing Band

±$0.39 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ESRT Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 57/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 0%

Model Bullish Setup (57/100)Model Risk Weight (43/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$766.8M	$0	$249.1M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$766.8M	$0	$260.9M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$738.2M	$0	$232.5M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ESRT)

✓Walkthrough of ESRT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ESRT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.34%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $5.09H $5.10L $4.97C $5.05VOL 4.35M

RES: $6.05SUP: $3.40SMA50: $4.49SMA200: $5.30

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ESRT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ESRT Butterfly Map → + Track ESRT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-8.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. 0.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ESRT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ESRT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ESRT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ESRT)

Financials Rank #642 of 1096 ⚔️ JBGS vs ESRT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ESRT vs. JBGS, SVC, ARI, SAFE)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (ESRT) ranks #642 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #582 by equity capitalization ($869.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARI leads on earnings valuation at 6.5x trailing P/E, while ESRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.6% ROIC and — gross margin. SAFE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with ESRT at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ESRT ACTIVE Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A)	D+	57/100	—	—	11.6%	+1.61%	$869.4M	Benchmark Subject
JBGS JBG SMITH Properties	D+	52/100	—	—	-12.0%	+3.98%	$896.2M	/jbgs-vs-esrt →
SVC Service Properties Trust of	D+	53/100	—	—	-31.3%	+1.75%	$830.2M	/svc-vs-esrt →
ARI Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance Inc	C-	59/100	6.5x	—	6.8%	-1.68%	$827.0M	/ari-vs-esrt →
SAFE Safehold Inc.	C+	66/100	7.0x	—	3.3%	+3.37%	$803.1M	/safe-vs-esrt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001541401

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (ESRT) reported GAAP revenue of $766.8M (+0.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $766.8M , and +3.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $249.1M, and free cash flow of $249.1M (-4.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ESRT closed FY2025 with $4.47B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$766.8M	$0	$249.1M	$249.1M	$4.47B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$766.8M	$0	$260.9M	$260.9M	$4.51B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$738.2M	$0	$232.5M	$232.5M	—	—

3. ESRT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ESRT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: ESRT) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $5.05 (+1.61% 1D, market cap $869.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ESRT ranks #642 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ESRT compare to JBGS and SVC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ESRT carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.6%. By comparison, JBGS (JBG SMITH Properties) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -12.0%, cap $896.2M) and SVC (Service Properties Trust of) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -31.3%, cap $830.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARI leads on earnings multiple (6.5x) while ESRT leads on capital efficiency (11.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ESRT?

Per ESRT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001541401), Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) generated $766.8M in revenue (+0.0% YoY), $0 in net income, and $249.1M in free cash flow against $4.47B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ESRT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ESRT last traded at $5.05 (+1.61% on volume of 2,665,796 shares), positioning the stock +12.47% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.49) and -4.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.30). Across its 52-week range of $3.93 to $7.54, ESRT sits at the 31.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($4.66 to $5.44).

ESRT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ESRT's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Empire State Realty Trust Inc. (Class A) (ESRT)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ESRT stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.7% event move for ESRT, spanning a range between $4.66 and $5.44.

Direct Sub-Reports: ESRT RQD Cockpit ESRT 12M Forecast ESRT Earnings & Move ESRT Dividends & DRIP ESRT Insiders & 13F ESRT Whale Options ESRT Profit Sankey ESRT News & Why