Stock Ratings / Industrials / CVLG / forecast

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Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$28.82 -0.52% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.74

Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $731.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $28.74 (-0.28%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CVLG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY CVLG SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 34% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$31.95-3.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$30.72-5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$29.19-1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D$28.82-5.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CVLG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CVLG currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($32.92) and Max Pain ($30.26) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $52.37.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CVLG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “CVLG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your CVLG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $28.82: 347.0 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $21.36

$7,412

$-2,588 (-25.9%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $27.39

$9,504

$-496 (-5.0%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $52.37

$18,171

+$8,171 (+81.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$28	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$49	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$24	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CVLG)

✓Walkthrough of CVLG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

CVLG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.33%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $33.09H $33.09L $28.82C $28.82VOL 353.7K

RES: $57.94SUP: $27.66SMA50: $32.92SMA200: $34.02

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CVLG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CVLG Butterfly Map → + Track CVLG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CVLG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CVLG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CVLG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CVLG)

Industrials Rank #327 of 485 ⚔️ HTLD vs CVLG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (CVLG vs. HTLD, MRTN, ULH, WERN)

Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) ranks #327 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #278 by equity capitalization ($731.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRTN leads on earnings valuation at 55.1x trailing P/E, while MRTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MRTN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with CVLG at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
CVLG ACTIVE Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)	D	47/100	101.0x	—	0.4%	-0.52%	$731.4M	Benchmark Subject
HTLD Heartland Express Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-5.1%	+1.87%	$802.7M	/htld-vs-cvlg →
MRTN Marten Transport Ltd.	C	65/100	55.1x	—	2.5%	+0.86%	$960.3M	/mrtn-vs-cvlg →
ULH Universal Logistics Holdings Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-4.2%	+2.23%	$459.3M	/ulh-vs-cvlg →
WERN Werner Enterprises Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	0.4%	+1.84%	$1.66B	/wern-vs-cvlg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000928658

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $7.2M, operating cash flow of $113.6M, and free cash flow of -$33.9M (-12.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, CVLG closed FY2025 with $1.05B in total assets against $234.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$7.2M	$113.6M	-$33.9M	$1.05B	$234.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$35.9M	$122.9M	-$30.1M	$997.6M	$187.1M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$55.2K	$84.8M	$84.8M	—	—

3. CVLG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CVLG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: CVLG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $28.82 (-0.52% 1D, market cap $731.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, CVLG ranks #327 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CVLG compare to HTLD and MRTN in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), CVLG carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 101.0x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 0.4%. By comparison, HTLD (Heartland Express Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.1%, cap $802.7M) and MRTN (Marten Transport Ltd.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 55.1x, ROIC 2.5%, cap $960.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CVLG?

Per CVLG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000928658), Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) generated $0 in revenue, $7.2M in net income, and -$33.9M in free cash flow against $1.05B in total assets and $234.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CVLG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CVLG last traded at $28.82 (-0.52% on volume of 217,000 shares), positioning the stock -12.45% below its 50-day simple moving average ($32.92) and -15.29% below its 200-day simple moving average ($34.02). Across its 52-week range of $18.00 to $49.88, CVLG sits at the 33.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.1% ($26.49 to $31.15).

CVLG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is CVLG's 12-month stock price target?

Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) (CVLG) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $27.39 (-5% from $28.82), with a bull-case target of $52.37 and a bear-case floor of $21.36.

Is CVLG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates CVLG D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 47/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: CVLG RQD Cockpit CVLG 12M Forecast CVLG Earnings & Move CVLG Dividends & DRIP CVLG Insiders & 13F CVLG Whale Options CVLG Profit Sankey CVLG News & Why