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Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell MRTN stock right now?

Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (3% return on capital), mixed timing at 55x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

Q: What is MRTN's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MRTN's 12-month base price target is $12.13 (range $9.46 to $19.4), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$11.76 +0.86% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.76

Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $960.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.76 (-0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MRTN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MRTN SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 26% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 31 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (20% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 9 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$12.75+0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$12.84-8.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$11.78-0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$11.76+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MRTN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, MRTN faces multiple-compression risk if 55.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 55x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.25) or 200D SMA ($14.49) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.13) toward Bear Floor ($9.46).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MRTN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MRTN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

3130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE26% OF RANGE

L: $9$11.76H: $18

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on MRTN

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

2.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 9.73% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (67)

24/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 16/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MRTN

✓Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Priced at 55x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MRTN Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MRTN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.02%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $11.76H $11.80L $11.61C $11.76VOL 546.3K

RES: $16.64SUP: $10.61SMA50: $13.25SMA200: $14.49

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MRTN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MRTN Butterfly Map → + Track MRTN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

39.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MRTN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MRTN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MRTN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MRTN)

Industrials Rank #118 of 485 ⚔️ HTLD vs MRTN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MRTN vs. HTLD, CVLG, WERN, ULH)

Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) ranks #118 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #255 by equity capitalization ($960.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRTN leads on earnings valuation at 55.1x trailing P/E, while MRTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MRTN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MRTN ACTIVE Marten Transport Ltd.	C	65/100	55.1x	—	2.5%	+0.86%	$960.3M	Benchmark Subject
HTLD Heartland Express Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-5.1%	+1.87%	$802.7M	/htld-vs-mrtn →
CVLG Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)	D	47/100	101.0x	—	0.4%	-0.52%	$731.4M	/cvlg-vs-mrtn →
WERN Werner Enterprises Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	0.4%	+1.84%	$1.66B	/wern-vs-mrtn →
ULH Universal Logistics Holdings Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-4.2%	+2.23%	$459.3M	/ulh-vs-mrtn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000799167

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $17.4M, operating cash flow of $93.5M, and free cash flow of $93.5M (-30.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MRTN closed FY2025 with $949.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$17.4M	$93.5M	$93.5M	$949.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$26.9M	$134.8M	$134.8M	$968.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.13B	$70.4M	$164.4M	$164.4M	—	—

3. MRTN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MRTN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Marten Transport Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRTN) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $11.76 (+0.86% 1D, market cap $960.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MRTN ranks #118 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MRTN compare to HTLD and CVLG in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), MRTN carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 55.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.5%. By comparison, HTLD (Heartland Express Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.1%, cap $802.7M) and CVLG (Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 101.0x, ROIC 0.4%, cap $731.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRTN?

Per MRTN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000799167), Marten Transport Ltd. generated $0 in revenue, $17.4M in net income, and $93.5M in free cash flow against $949.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 55x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MRTN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MRTN last traded at $11.76 (+0.86% on volume of 893,539 shares), positioning the stock -11.25% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.25) and -18.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.49). Across its 52-week range of $9.35 to $18.48, MRTN sits at the 26.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($11.00 to $12.52).

MRTN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MRTN stock right now?

Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (3% return on capital), mixed timing at 55x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is MRTN's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MRTN's 12-month base price target is $12.13 (range $9.46 to $19.4), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: MRTN RQD Cockpit MRTN 12M Forecast MRTN Earnings & Move MRTN Dividends & DRIP MRTN Insiders & 13F MRTN Whale Options MRTN Profit Sankey MRTN News & Why