MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why MRTN Stock advanced +0.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$11.76 +0.86% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.76
Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $960.3M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.76 (-0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MRTN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MRTN SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 26% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 31 (OVERSOLD (<32))
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (20% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.5% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)
Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 9 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$12.75+0.7% Next Q
73
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B$12.84-8.3% Next Q
70
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$11.78-0.2% Next Q
68
CurrentGrade C$11.76+1.3% Hist 90D α
65
Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MRTN Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 65/100 (C) score, MRTN faces multiple-compression risk if 55.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Priced at 55x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.25) or 200D SMA ($14.49) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.13) toward Bear Floor ($9.46).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MRTN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MRTN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why MRTN Stock advanced +0.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) advanced +0.86% to $11.76, trading at 26% of its 52-week range ($9.35 – $18.48). Solid steady margins (3% return on capital), mixed timing at 55x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 26% of its 52-week range ($9.35 – $18.48) with RSI-14 at 31 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.5% around $11.76 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $93.5M annual free cash flow.
Live MRTN Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MRTN Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
MRTN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.02%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $11.76H $11.80L $11.61C $11.76VOL 546.3K
RES: $16.64SUP: $10.61SMA50: $13.25SMA200: $14.49
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
MRTN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
39.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MRTN today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MRTN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MRTN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MRTN)
Industrials Rank #118 of 485
⚔️ HTLD vs MRTN Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MRTN vs. HTLD, CVLG, WERN, ULH)
Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) ranks #118 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #255 by equity capitalization ($960.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRTN leads on earnings valuation at 55.1x trailing P/E, while MRTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MRTN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRTN
ACTIVE
Marten Transport Ltd. | C | 65/100 | 55.1x | — | 2.5% | +0.86% | $960.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| HTLD Heartland Express Inc. | D | 44/100 | — | — | -5.1% | +1.87% | $802.7M | /htld-vs-mrtn → |
| CVLG Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A) | D | 47/100 | 101.0x | — | 0.4% | -0.52% | $731.4M | /cvlg-vs-mrtn → |
| WERN Werner Enterprises Inc. | D | 45/100 | — | — | 0.4% | +1.84% | $1.66B | /wern-vs-mrtn → |
| ULH Universal Logistics Holdings Inc. | D- | 39/100 | — | — | -4.2% | +2.23% | $459.3M | /ulh-vs-mrtn → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000799167In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $17.4M, operating cash flow of $93.5M, and free cash flow of $93.5M (-30.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MRTN closed FY2025 with $949.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $17.4M | $93.5M | $93.5M | $949.8M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $26.9M | $134.8M | $134.8M | $968.8M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.13B | $70.4M | $164.4M | $164.4M | — | — |
3. MRTN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs MRTN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Marten Transport Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRTN) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $11.76 (+0.86% 1D, market cap $960.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MRTN ranks #118 in composite RQD confidence.
How does MRTN compare to HTLD and CVLG in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), MRTN carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 55.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.5%. By comparison, HTLD (Heartland Express Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.1%, cap $802.7M) and CVLG (Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 101.0x, ROIC 0.4%, cap $731.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRTN?
Per MRTN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000799167), Marten Transport Ltd. generated $0 in revenue, $17.4M in net income, and $93.5M in free cash flow against $949.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 55x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is MRTN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
MRTN last traded at $11.76 (+0.86% on volume of 893,539 shares), positioning the stock -11.25% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.25) and -18.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.49). Across its 52-week range of $9.35 to $18.48, MRTN sits at the 26.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($11.00 to $12.52).
MRTN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is MRTN stock moving today?
Why MRTN Stock advanced +0.86% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (3% return on capital), mixed timing at 55x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.