Stock Ratings / Industrials / MRTN / earnings

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Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.5% Move

Q: Where is MRTN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MRTN last traded at $11.76 (+0.86% on volume of 893,539 shares), positioning the stock -11.25% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.25) and -18.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.49). Across its 52-week range of $9.35 to $18.48, MRTN sits at the 26.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($11.00 to $12.52).

Q: When is MRTN's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

Q: How much is MRTN stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±6.5% event move for MRTN, spanning a range between $11 and $12.52.

$11.76 +0.86% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.76

Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $960.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MRTN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MRTN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Marten Transport Ltd. (NASDAQ: MRTN) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $11.76 (+0.86% 1D, market cap $960.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, MRTN ranks #118 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MRTN compare to HTLD and CVLG in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Trucking Freight/Courier Services), MRTN carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 55.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.5%. By comparison, HTLD (Heartland Express Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.1%, cap $802.7M) and CVLG (Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 101.0x, ROIC 0.4%, cap $731.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRTN leads on earnings multiple (55.1x) while MRTN leads on capital efficiency (2.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRTN?

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Per MRTN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000799167), Marten Transport Ltd. generated $0 in revenue, $17.4M in net income, and $93.5M in free cash flow against $949.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 55x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.76 (-0.04%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 2.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MRTN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MRTN SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 26% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 31 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (20% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 9 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$12.75+0.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$12.84-8.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$11.78-0.2% Next Q

Current

Grade C$11.76+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (73) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MRTN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, MRTN faces multiple-compression risk if 55.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 55x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.25) or 200D SMA ($14.49) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.13) toward Bear Floor ($9.46).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MRTN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MRTN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.5% Swing Band

±$0.76 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MRTN Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 65/100

Trailing EPS: $0.21 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (65/100)Model Risk Weight (35/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	$17.4M	$93.5M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$26.9M	$134.8M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$1.13B	$70.4M	$164.4M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MRTN & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MRTN
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MRTN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.02%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $11.76H $11.80L $11.61C $11.76VOL 546.3K

RES: $16.64SUP: $10.61SMA50: $13.25SMA200: $14.49

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MRTN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MRTN Butterfly Map → + Track MRTN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

39.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MRTN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MRTN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MRTN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MRTN)

Industrials Rank #118 of 485 ⚔️ HTLD vs MRTN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (MRTN vs. HTLD, CVLG, WERN, ULH)

Industry: Trucking Freight/Courier Services (19 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) ranks #118 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #255 by equity capitalization ($960.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRTN leads on earnings valuation at 55.1x trailing P/E, while MRTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.5% ROIC and — gross margin. MRTN currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MRTN ACTIVE Marten Transport Ltd.	C	65/100	55.1x	—	2.5%	+0.86%	$960.3M	Benchmark Subject
HTLD Heartland Express Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	-5.1%	+1.87%	$802.7M	/htld-vs-mrtn →
CVLG Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (Class A)	D	47/100	101.0x	—	0.4%	-0.52%	$731.4M	/cvlg-vs-mrtn →
WERN Werner Enterprises Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	0.4%	+1.84%	$1.66B	/wern-vs-mrtn →
ULH Universal Logistics Holdings Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-4.2%	+2.23%	$459.3M	/ulh-vs-mrtn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000799167

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Marten Transport Ltd. (MRTN) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $17.4M, operating cash flow of $93.5M, and free cash flow of $93.5M (-30.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, MRTN closed FY2025 with $949.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$17.4M	$93.5M	$93.5M	$949.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$26.9M	$134.8M	$134.8M	$968.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.13B	$70.4M	$164.4M	$164.4M	—	—

3. MRTN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MRTN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MRTN compare to HTLD and CVLG in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MRTN?

Where is MRTN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MRTN last traded at $11.76 (+0.86% on volume of 893,539 shares), positioning the stock -11.25% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.25) and -18.84% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.49). Across its 52-week range of $9.35 to $18.48, MRTN sits at the 26.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.5% ($11.00 to $12.52).