MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why BXMT Stock surged +2.94% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$10.87 +2.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.91
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.83B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.91 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 6.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BXMT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BXMT SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade B$11.03-4.5% Next Q
72
Q2 (-2Q)Grade B-$10.53+0.7% Next Q
69
Q3 (-1Q)Grade B-$10.60+2.5% Next Q
67
CurrentGrade C$10.87+1.1% Hist 90D α
64
Trajectory: B (72) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BXMT Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 64/100 (C) score, BXMT faces multiple-compression risk if 16.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.24) or 200D SMA ($16.70) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.16) toward Bear Floor ($8.70).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BXMT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BXMT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why BXMT Stock surged +2.94% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) surged +2.94% to $10.87, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($10.12 – $20.67). Solid steady margins (3% return on capital), mixed timing at 17x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($10.12 – $20.67) with RSI-14 at 45 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.5% around $10.87 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $275.9M annual free cash flow.
Live BXMT Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BXMT Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
BXMT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.76%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $10.78H $11.02L $10.72C $10.87VOL 7.78M
RES: $11.27SUP: $9.48SMA50: $12.24SMA200: $16.70
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
BXMT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
9.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BXMT today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BXMT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BXMT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BXMT)
Financials Rank #350 of 1096
⚔️ FRMI vs BXMT Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BXMT vs. FRMI, ARR, DHC, RLJ)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) ranks #350 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #445 by equity capitalization ($1.83B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARR leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while ARR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.3% ROIC and — gross margin. BXMT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 64/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXMT
ACTIVE
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. | C | 64/100 | 16.7x | — | 3.1% | +2.94% | $1.83B | Benchmark Subject |
| FRMI Fermi Inc. | E | 34/100 | — | — | -20.4% | -5.30% | $1.83B | /frmi-vs-bxmt → |
| ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc. | C | 63/100 | 5.9x | — | 14.3% | +0.95% | $1.90B | /arr-vs-bxmt → |
| DHC Diversified Healthcare Trust of | D- | 36/100 | — | — | -17.2% | +2.18% | $1.93B | /dhc-vs-bxmt → |
| RLJ RLJ Lodging Trust of $0.01 par value | D+ | 53/100 | 67.9x | — | 1.3% | +1.68% | $1.94B | /rlj-vs-bxmt → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001061630In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $109.6M, operating cash flow of $275.9M, and free cash flow of $275.9M (-24.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, BXMT closed FY2025 with $20.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $109.6M | $275.9M | $275.9M | $20.00B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | -$204.1M | $366.5M | $366.5M | $19.80B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $246.6M | $458.8M | $458.8M | — | — |
3. BXMT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs BXMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE: BXMT) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $10.87 (+2.94% 1D, market cap $1.83B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BXMT ranks #350 in composite RQD confidence.
How does BXMT compare to FRMI and ARR in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), BXMT carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, FRMI (Fermi Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.4%, cap $1.83B) and ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $1.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while ARR leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BXMT?
Per BXMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001061630), Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $109.6M in net income, and $275.9M in free cash flow against $20.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is BXMT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
BXMT last traded at $10.87 (+2.94% on volume of 7,749,609 shares), positioning the stock -11.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.24) and -34.91% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.70). Across its 52-week range of $10.12 to $20.67, BXMT sits at the 7.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($10.05 to $11.69).
BXMT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is BXMT stock moving today?
Why BXMT Stock surged +2.94% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (3% return on capital), mixed timing at 17x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.