Stock Ratings / Financials / BXMT / financials

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Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$10.87 +2.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.91

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.83B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.91 (+0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 6.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BXMT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BXMT SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 12 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B$11.03-4.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$10.53+0.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$10.60+2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C$10.87+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B (72) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BXMT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, BXMT faces multiple-compression risk if 16.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.24) or 200D SMA ($16.70) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.16) toward Bear Floor ($8.70).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BXMT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BXMT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How BXMT Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$275.9M (6.9% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	0%	$109.6M	$275.9M	3.1%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	0%	-$204.1M	$366.5M	3.1%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	0%	$246.6M	$458.8M	3.1%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BXMT)

✓Walkthrough of BXMT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BXMT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -42.76%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $10.78H $11.02L $10.72C $10.87VOL 7.78M

RES: $11.27SUP: $9.48SMA50: $12.24SMA200: $16.70

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BXMT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BXMT Butterfly Map → + Track BXMT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

9.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BXMT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BXMT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BXMT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BXMT)

Financials Rank #350 of 1096 ⚔️ FRMI vs BXMT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BXMT vs. FRMI, ARR, DHC, RLJ)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) ranks #350 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #445 by equity capitalization ($1.83B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARR leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while ARR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.3% ROIC and — gross margin. BXMT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BXMT ACTIVE Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc.	C	64/100	16.7x	—	3.1%	+2.94%	$1.83B	Benchmark Subject
FRMI Fermi Inc.	E	34/100	—	—	-20.4%	-5.30%	$1.83B	/frmi-vs-bxmt →
ARR ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.	C	63/100	5.9x	—	14.3%	+0.95%	$1.90B	/arr-vs-bxmt →
DHC Diversified Healthcare Trust of	D-	36/100	—	—	-17.2%	+2.18%	$1.93B	/dhc-vs-bxmt →
RLJ RLJ Lodging Trust of $0.01 par value	D+	53/100	67.9x	—	1.3%	+1.68%	$1.94B	/rlj-vs-bxmt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001061630

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $109.6M, operating cash flow of $275.9M, and free cash flow of $275.9M (-24.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, BXMT closed FY2025 with $20.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$109.6M	$275.9M	$275.9M	$20.00B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$204.1M	$366.5M	$366.5M	$19.80B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$246.6M	$458.8M	$458.8M	—	—

3. BXMT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BXMT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE: BXMT) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $10.87 (+2.94% 1D, market cap $1.83B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BXMT ranks #350 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BXMT compare to FRMI and ARR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), BXMT carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 3.1%. By comparison, FRMI (Fermi Inc.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -20.4%, cap $1.83B) and ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $1.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARR leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while ARR leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BXMT?

Per BXMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001061630), Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $109.6M in net income, and $275.9M in free cash flow against $20.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BXMT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BXMT last traded at $10.87 (+2.94% on volume of 7,749,609 shares), positioning the stock -11.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.24) and -34.91% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.70). Across its 52-week range of $10.12 to $20.67, BXMT sits at the 7.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($10.05 to $11.69).

BXMT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. (BXMT)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), BXMT converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $275.9M in free cash flow (6.9% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: BXMT RQD Cockpit BXMT 12M Forecast BXMT Earnings & Move BXMT Dividends & DRIP BXMT Insiders & 13F BXMT Whale Options BXMT Profit Sankey BXMT News & Why