MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why BWB Stock slipped -0.24% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$20.34 -0.24% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.29
Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $567.2M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.29 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BWB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY BWB SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (28% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$20.25+1.7% Next Q
45
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$20.60-0.1% Next Q
48
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$20.58-1.2% Next Q
50
CurrentGrade D+$20.34-0.9% Hist 90D α
53
Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BWB Turnaround Squeeze
While BWB currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($20.78) and Max Pain ($21.36) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $23.75.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BWB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “BWB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why BWB Stock slipped -0.24% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) slipped -0.24% to $20.34, trading at 65% of its 52-week range ($16.06 – $22.62). Stretched risk/reward at 12x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 65% of its 52-week range ($16.06 – $22.62) with RSI-14 at 43.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.3% around $20.34 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $22.0M annual free cash flow.
Live BWB Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BWB)
- ✓Walkthrough of BWB's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
BWB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.19%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $20.46H $21.01L $20.13C $20.34VOL 139.3K
RES: $21.07SUP: $19.65SMA50: $20.78SMA200: $19.71
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
BWB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BWB today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BWB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BWB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BWB)
Financials Rank #742 of 1096
⚔️ BSVN vs BWB Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BWB vs. BSVN, NPB, SFST, BWFG)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) ranks #742 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #675 by equity capitalization ($567.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NPB leads on earnings valuation at 6.7x trailing P/E, while BSVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BSVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with BWB at 53/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWB
ACTIVE
Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | 12.3x | — | 8.9% | -0.24% | $567.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| BSVN Bank7 Corp. | B- | 70/100 | 13.1x | — | 17.2% | +0.46% | $564.9M | /bsvn-vs-bwb → |
| NPB Northpointe Bancshares Inc. | C | 63/100 | 6.7x | — | 14.7% | -0.06% | $559.5M | /npb-vs-bwb → |
| SFST Southern First Bancshares Inc. | C | 63/100 | 19.0x | — | 8.2% | -0.18% | $576.5M | /sfst-vs-bwb → |
| BWFG Bankwell Financial Group Inc. | C+ | 67/100 | 15.8x | — | 11.7% | +4.13% | $555.2M | /bwfg-vs-bwb → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001341317In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (BWB) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $46.1M, operating cash flow of $27.8M, and free cash flow of $22.0M (-48.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, BWB closed FY2025 with $5.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $46.1M | $27.8M | $22.0M | $5.41B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $32.8M | $46.4M | $42.3M | $5.07B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $40.0M | $30.0M | $30.0M | — | — |
3. BWB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs BWB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: BWB) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $20.34 (-0.24% 1D, market cap $567.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BWB ranks #742 in composite RQD confidence.
How does BWB compare to BSVN and NPB in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BWB carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.9%. By comparison, BSVN (Bank7 Corp.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 13.1x, ROIC 17.2%, cap $564.9M) and NPB (Northpointe Bancshares Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $559.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NPB leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BWB?
Per BWB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001341317), Bridgewater Bancshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $46.1M in net income, and $22.0M in free cash flow against $5.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is BWB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
BWB last traded at $20.34 (-0.24% on volume of 150,990 shares), positioning the stock -2.12% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.78) and +3.20% above its 200-day simple moving average ($19.71). Across its 52-week range of $16.06 to $22.62, BWB sits at the 65.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($19.26 to $21.42).
BWB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is BWB stock moving today?
Why BWB Stock slipped -0.24% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 12x P/E (9% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.