NPB (63) BSRR (65) BSVN (70) BWB (53) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Bankwell Financial Group Inc. (BWFG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$69.65 +4.13% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $70.04

Bankwell Financial Group Inc. (BWFG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $555.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $70.03 (+0.55%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 960% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BWFG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BWFG SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 94% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 73.9 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$64.72+1.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$65.54+2.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$67.20+3.6% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$69.65+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BWFG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, BWFG faces multiple-compression risk if 15.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($66.39) or 200D SMA ($56.90) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($72.47) toward Bear Floor ($56.53).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BWFG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BWFG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERBOUGHT (>70)

73.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE94% OF RANGE

L: $43$69.65H: $72

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● BUYING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Hedge funds and options traders are leaning bullish, showing strong institutional appetite.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: BRQD 29 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on BWFG

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

11.7% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 4.89% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (75)

29/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 16/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like BWFG

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (BWFG Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BWFG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +34.67%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $70.35H $71.50L $69.43C $69.65VOL 97.5K

RES: $67.96SUP: $64.92SMA50: $66.39SMA200: $56.90

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BWFG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BWFG Butterfly Map → + Track BWFG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +44.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BWFG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BWFG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BWFG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BWFG)

Financials Rank #255 of 1096 ⚔️ NPB vs BWFG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BWFG vs. NPB, BSRR, BSVN, BWB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bankwell Financial Group Inc. (BWFG) ranks #255 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #681 by equity capitalization ($555.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NPB leads on earnings valuation at 6.7x trailing P/E, while BSVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BSVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with BWFG at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BWFG ACTIVE Bankwell Financial Group Inc.	C+	67/100	15.8x	—	11.7%	+4.13%	$555.2M	Benchmark Subject
NPB Northpointe Bancshares Inc.	C	63/100	6.7x	—	14.7%	-0.06%	$559.5M	/npb-vs-bwfg →
BSRR Sierra Bancorp	C	65/100	13.0x	—	11.6%	+0.21%	$550.2M	/bsrr-vs-bwfg →
BSVN Bank7 Corp.	B-	70/100	13.1x	—	17.2%	+0.46%	$564.9M	/bsvn-vs-bwfg →
BWB Bridgewater Bancshares Inc.	D+	53/100	12.3x	—	8.9%	-0.24%	$567.2M	/bwb-vs-bwfg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001505732

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bankwell Financial Group Inc. (BWFG) reported GAAP revenue of $2.8M (+44.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.0M , and +73.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $35.2M, operating cash flow of $28.3M, and free cash flow of $27.1M (-7.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, BWFG closed FY2025 with $3.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.8M	$35.2M	$28.3M	$27.1M	$3.36B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.0M	$9.8M	$29.9M	$29.3M	$3.27B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.6M	$36.7M	$31.9M	$31.9M	—	—

3. BWFG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BWFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Bankwell Financial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: BWFG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $69.65 (+4.13% 1D, market cap $555.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BWFG ranks #255 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BWFG compare to NPB and BSRR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BWFG carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, NPB (Northpointe Bancshares Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $559.5M) and BSRR (Sierra Bancorp) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 13.0x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $550.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NPB leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BWFG?

Per BWFG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001505732), Bankwell Financial Group Inc. generated $2.8M in revenue (+44.0% YoY), $35.2M in net income, and $27.1M in free cash flow against $3.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BWFG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BWFG last traded at $69.65 (+4.13% on volume of 346,215 shares), positioning the stock +4.91% above its 50-day simple moving average ($66.39) and +22.41% above its 200-day simple moving average ($56.90). Across its 52-week range of $42.61 to $71.50, BWFG sits at the 93.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.9 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($66.66 to $72.64).

BWFG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell BWFG stock right now?

Bankwell Financial Group Inc. (BWFG) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (12% return on capital), mixed timing at 16x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is BWFG's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

BWFG's 12-month base price target is $72.47 (range $56.53 to $85.51), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: BWFG RQD Cockpit BWFG 12M Forecast BWFG Earnings & Move BWFG Dividends & DRIP BWFG Insiders & 13F BWFG Whale Options BWFG Profit Sankey BWFG News & Why