Stock Ratings / Financials / BWFG / earnings

NPB (63) BSRR (65) BSVN (70) BWB (53) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Bankwell Financial Group Inc. (BWFG) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.3% Move

$69.65 +4.13% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $70.04

Bankwell Financial Group Inc. (BWFG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $555.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $70.03 (+0.55%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 960% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BWFG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BWFG SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 94% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 73.9 (OVERBOUGHT (>70))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 11 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$64.72+1.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$65.54+2.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$67.20+3.6% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$69.65+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the BWFG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, BWFG faces multiple-compression risk if 15.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($66.39) or 200D SMA ($56.90) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($72.47) toward Bear Floor ($56.53).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BWFG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BWFG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.3% Swing Band

±$2.99 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

BWFG Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 67/100

Trailing EPS: $4.42 • YoY Revenue Growth: 44%

Model Bullish Setup (67/100)Model Risk Weight (33/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$2.8M	$35.2M	$27.1M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$2.0M	$9.8M	$29.3M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$1.6M	$36.7M	$31.9M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating BWFG & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on BWFG
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

BWFG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +34.67%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $70.35H $71.50L $69.43C $69.65VOL 97.5K

RES: $67.96SUP: $64.92SMA50: $66.39SMA200: $56.90

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BWFG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BWFG Butterfly Map → + Track BWFG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +44.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BWFG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BWFG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BWFG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BWFG)

Financials Rank #255 of 1096 ⚔️ NPB vs BWFG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (BWFG vs. NPB, BSRR, BSVN, BWB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bankwell Financial Group Inc. (BWFG) ranks #255 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #681 by equity capitalization ($555.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NPB leads on earnings valuation at 6.7x trailing P/E, while BSVN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.2% ROIC and — gross margin. BSVN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with BWFG at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BWFG ACTIVE Bankwell Financial Group Inc.	C+	67/100	15.8x	—	11.7%	+4.13%	$555.2M	Benchmark Subject
NPB Northpointe Bancshares Inc.	C	63/100	6.7x	—	14.7%	-0.06%	$559.5M	/npb-vs-bwfg →
BSRR Sierra Bancorp	C	65/100	13.0x	—	11.6%	+0.21%	$550.2M	/bsrr-vs-bwfg →
BSVN Bank7 Corp.	B-	70/100	13.1x	—	17.2%	+0.46%	$564.9M	/bsvn-vs-bwfg →
BWB Bridgewater Bancshares Inc.	D+	53/100	12.3x	—	8.9%	-0.24%	$567.2M	/bwb-vs-bwfg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001505732

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bankwell Financial Group Inc. (BWFG) reported GAAP revenue of $2.8M (+44.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.0M , and +73.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $35.2M, operating cash flow of $28.3M, and free cash flow of $27.1M (-7.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, BWFG closed FY2025 with $3.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.8M	$35.2M	$28.3M	$27.1M	$3.36B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.0M	$9.8M	$29.9M	$29.3M	$3.27B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.6M	$36.7M	$31.9M	$31.9M	—	—

3. BWFG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BWFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Bankwell Financial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: BWFG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $69.65 (+4.13% 1D, market cap $555.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, BWFG ranks #255 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BWFG compare to NPB and BSRR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), BWFG carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, NPB (Northpointe Bancshares Inc.) holds a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 14.7%, cap $559.5M) and BSRR (Sierra Bancorp) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 13.0x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $550.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NPB leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while BSVN leads on capital efficiency (17.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BWFG?

Per BWFG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001505732), Bankwell Financial Group Inc. generated $2.8M in revenue (+44.0% YoY), $35.2M in net income, and $27.1M in free cash flow against $3.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BWFG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BWFG last traded at $69.65 (+4.13% on volume of 346,215 shares), positioning the stock +4.91% above its 50-day simple moving average ($66.39) and +22.41% above its 200-day simple moving average ($56.90). Across its 52-week range of $42.61 to $71.50, BWFG sits at the 93.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.9 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($66.66 to $72.64).

BWFG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is BWFG's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Bankwell Financial Group Inc. (BWFG)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is BWFG stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±4.3% event move for BWFG, spanning a range between $66.66 and $72.64.

Direct Sub-Reports: BWFG RQD Cockpit BWFG 12M Forecast BWFG Earnings & Move BWFG Dividends & DRIP BWFG Insiders & 13F BWFG Whale Options BWFG Profit Sankey BWFG News & Why