Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / BALY / options

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Bally's Corporation (BALY) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$13.50 +0.22% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.48

Bally's Corporation (BALY) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 24/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (24/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $681.3M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.48 (-0.15%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (24/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-15.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for BALY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (24/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY BALY SCORES 24/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (38% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.2% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (38% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 45% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 55.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$13.94-6.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$13.02+6.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$13.86-2.6% Next Q

Current

Grade E$13.50-10.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (32) → E (24)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a BALY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While BALY currently carries a cautious 24/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.94) and Max Pain ($14.18) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.58.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $BALY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “BALY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 24%NO 76%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±9.2%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (BALY)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for BALY.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring BALY)

✓Walkthrough of BALY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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BALY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +1.35%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $13.31H $13.69L $13.31C $13.50VOL 92.2K

RES: $14.22SUP: $7.17SMA50: $11.94SMA200: $12.92

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

BALY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 BALY Butterfly Map → + Track BALY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on BALY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for BALY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for BALY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (BALY)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #991 of 1011 ⚔️ HBNB vs BALY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (BALY vs. HBNB, HCMA, TH, CVEO)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Bally's Corporation (BALY) ranks #991 by composite RQD confidence (24/100, grade E) and #558 by equity capitalization ($681.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BALY leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CVEO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 0.9% ROIC and 23.7% gross margin. HCMA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with BALY at 24/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
BALY ACTIVE Bally's Corporation	E	24/100	—	—	-4.7%	+0.22%	$681.3M	Benchmark Subject
HBNB Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)	D	48/100	—	—	—	-5.09%	$1.09B	/hbnb-vs-baly →
HCMA HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share	D+	56/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$400.5M	/hcma-vs-baly →
TH Target Hospitality Corp.	D	48/100	—	15.5%	-7.2%	+0.92%	$1.42B	/th-vs-baly →
CVEO Civeo Corporation (Canada)	D-	42/100	—	23.7%	0.9%	+1.09%	$315.8M	/cveo-vs-baly →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001747079

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Bally's Corporation (BALY) reported GAAP revenue of $2.44B (-0.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.45B , and -0.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$701.1M, operating cash flow of -$11.0M, and free cash flow of -$178.9M (-108.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, BALY closed FY2025 with $11.23B in total assets against $4.46B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.44B	-$701.1M	-$11.0M	-$178.9M	$11.23B	$4.46B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.45B	-$567.8M	$114.0M	-$85.8M	$5.86B	$3.30B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.45B	-$187.5M	$188.6M	$188.6M	—	—

3. BALY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is BALY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Bally's Corporation (NYSE: BALY) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 24/100 at a spot price of $13.50 (+0.22% 1D, market cap $681.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, BALY ranks #991 in composite RQD confidence.

How does BALY compare to HBNB and HCMA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), BALY carries a Roarable E (24/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.7%. By comparison, HBNB (Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.09B) and HCMA (HCM III Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $400.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BALY leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CVEO leads on capital efficiency (0.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for BALY?

Per BALY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001747079), Bally's Corporation generated $2.44B in revenue (-0.6% YoY), -$701.1M in net income, and -$178.9M in free cash flow against $11.23B in total assets and $4.46B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is BALY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

BALY last traded at $13.50 (+0.22% on volume of 70,230 shares), positioning the stock +13.07% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.94) and +4.49% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.92). Across its 52-week range of $8.44 to $19.60, BALY sits at the 45.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.2% ($12.26 to $14.74).

BALY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is BALY's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for BALY.

Direct Sub-Reports: BALY RQD Cockpit BALY 12M Forecast BALY Earnings & Move BALY Dividends & DRIP BALY Insiders & 13F BALY Whale Options BALY Profit Sankey BALY News & Why