Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.16% YoY Shares)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.3% FCF Margin ($15.0M FCF) & 98.1% Gross Margin
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, ARCO faces multiple-compression risk if 6.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($7.73) or 200D SMA ($8.21) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($6.87) toward Bear Floor ($5.36).
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) slipped -0.29% to $6.90, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($6.67 – $9.75). Stretched risk/reward at 7x P/E (19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
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Recent analyst coverage has brought Arcos Dorados Holdings (NYSE:ARCO) back into focus, after upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates and attention on its EV-to-EBITDA valuation prompted fresh interest from value-ori
Arcos Dorados Holdings is being highlighted for a sharp expected 207.7% earnings increase in 2026, alongside upward revisions to those earnings forecasts in the past two months. The company is also drawing attention for
UGP, CLDT, ARCO, OXY and KSS offer attractive EV to EBITDA ratios, with projected 2026 earnings growth ranging from 29.6% to 207.7%.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +4.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARCO today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARCO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) ranks #482 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #464 by equity capitalization ($1.45B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while ARCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. BJRI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with ARCO at 57/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCO
ACTIVE
Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 57/100 | 6.9x | 96.0% | 18.9% | -0.29% | $1.45B | Benchmark Subject |
| WEN Wendy's Company | D+ | 58/100 | 8.3x | 63.6% | 10.7% | +1.34% | $1.37B | /wen-vs-arco → |
| SG Sweetgreen Inc. (Class A) | E | 22/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +1.51% | $1.36B | /sg-vs-arco → |
| BJRI BJ's Restaurants Inc. | C | 65/100 | 27.6x | 74.7% | 10.7% | +4.58% | $1.35B | /bjri-vs-arco → |
| CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc | C | 65/100 | 34.9x | 69.0% | 5.4% | +2.23% | $1.62B | /cbrl-vs-arco → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) reported GAAP revenue of $4.68B (+4.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.47B , and +8.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $212.1M, operating cash flow of $296.3M, and free cash flow of $15.0M (+124.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARCO closed FY2025 with $3.89B in total assets against $1.13B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.10, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $4.68B | $212.1M | $296.3M | $15.0M | $3.89B | $1.13B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $4.47B | $148.8M | $266.8M | -$60.8M | $2.89B | $716.0M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $4.33B | $181.3M | $382.0M | $382.0M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: ARCO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $6.90 (-0.29% 1D, market cap $1.45B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ARCO ranks #482 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), ARCO carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.9x, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 18.9%. By comparison, WEN (Wendy's Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $1.37B) and SG (Sweetgreen Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while ARCO leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).
Per ARCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001508478), Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $4.68B in revenue (+4.7% YoY), $212.1M in net income, and $15.0M in free cash flow against $3.89B in total assets and $1.13B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
ARCO last traded at $6.90 (-0.29% on volume of 1,785,955 shares), positioning the stock -10.74% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.73) and -15.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.21). Across its 52-week range of $6.67 to $9.75, ARCO sits at the 7.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($6.38 to $7.42).
Why ARCO Stock slipped -0.29% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 7x P/E (19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.