Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ARCO / dividends

WEN (58) SG (22) BJRI (65) CBRL (65) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

Q: Does ARCO pay a dividend and is it safe?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) offers a 3.48% cash dividend yield ($0.24 annualized) and 4.08% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as ELEVATED PAYOUT WATCH.

$6.90 -0.29% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.88

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.45B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.88 (-0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 0.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ARCO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ARCO SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.16% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.3% FCF Margin ($15.0M FCF) & 98.1% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$7.77+2.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$7.95+1.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$8.09-14.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$6.90-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (65) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ARCO Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, ARCO faces multiple-compression risk if 6.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($7.73) or 200D SMA ($8.21) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($6.87) toward Bear Floor ($5.36).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ARCO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ARCO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

4.08% Total Yield

3.48% Cash ($0.24/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

41/100 • ELEVATED PAYOUT WATCH

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

96% of FCF

8 consecutive years of payout growth

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (7.6% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $20,803

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $849/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$10.8K

Yr 1

$11.6K

Yr 2

$12.5K

Yr 3

$13.4K

Yr 4

$14.4K

Yr 5

$15.5K

Yr 6

$16.7K

Yr 7

$18.0K

Yr 8

$19.3K

Yr 9

$20.8K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ARCO)

✓Walkthrough of ARCO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ARCO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.65%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $6.89H $6.90L $6.71C $6.90VOL 2.19M

RES: $8.16SUP: $6.31SMA50: $7.73SMA200: $8.21

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ARCO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ARCO Butterfly Map → + Track ARCO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-8.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ARCO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ARCO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ARCO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ARCO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #482 of 1011 ⚔️ WEN vs ARCO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ARCO vs. WEN, SG, BJRI, CBRL)

Industry: Restaurants (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) ranks #482 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #464 by equity capitalization ($1.45B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARCO leads on earnings valuation at 6.9x trailing P/E, while ARCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 96.0% gross margin. BJRI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with ARCO at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ARCO ACTIVE Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D+	57/100	6.9x	96.0%	18.9%	-0.29%	$1.45B	Benchmark Subject
WEN Wendy's Company	D+	58/100	8.3x	63.6%	10.7%	+1.34%	$1.37B	/wen-vs-arco →
SG Sweetgreen Inc. (Class A)	E	22/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.51%	$1.36B	/sg-vs-arco →
BJRI BJ's Restaurants Inc.	C	65/100	27.6x	74.7%	10.7%	+4.58%	$1.35B	/bjri-vs-arco →
CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc	C	65/100	34.9x	69.0%	5.4%	+2.23%	$1.62B	/cbrl-vs-arco →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001508478

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) reported GAAP revenue of $4.68B (+4.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.47B , and +8.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $212.1M, operating cash flow of $296.3M, and free cash flow of $15.0M (+124.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, ARCO closed FY2025 with $3.89B in total assets against $1.13B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.10, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.68B	$212.1M	$296.3M	$15.0M	$3.89B	$1.13B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$4.47B	$148.8M	$266.8M	-$60.8M	$2.89B	$716.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$4.33B	$181.3M	$382.0M	$382.0M	—	—

3. ARCO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ARCO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: ARCO) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $6.90 (-0.29% 1D, market cap $1.45B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ARCO ranks #482 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ARCO compare to WEN and SG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Restaurants), ARCO carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.9x, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of 18.9%. By comparison, WEN (Wendy's Company) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 10.7%, cap $1.37B) and SG (Sweetgreen Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (22/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARCO leads on earnings multiple (6.9x) while ARCO leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ARCO?

Per ARCO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001508478), Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $4.68B in revenue (+4.7% YoY), $212.1M in net income, and $15.0M in free cash flow against $3.89B in total assets and $1.13B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ARCO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ARCO last traded at $6.90 (-0.29% on volume of 1,785,955 shares), positioning the stock -10.74% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.73) and -15.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.21). Across its 52-week range of $6.67 to $9.75, ARCO sits at the 7.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($6.38 to $7.42).

ARCO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does ARCO pay a dividend and is it safe?

Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc. (Class A) (ARCO) offers a 3.48% cash dividend yield ($0.24 annualized) and 4.08% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as ELEVATED PAYOUT WATCH.

Direct Sub-Reports: ARCO RQD Cockpit ARCO 12M Forecast ARCO Earnings & Move ARCO Dividends & DRIP ARCO Insiders & 13F ARCO Whale Options ARCO Profit Sankey ARCO News & Why