VTS (61) GRNT (61) WHK (51) GPRK (56) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$11.80 +1.03% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.80

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $779.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OBE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OBE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (NYSE: OBE) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $11.80 (+1.03% 1D, market cap $779.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, OBE ranks #102 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OBE compare to VTS and GRNT in the Energy sector?

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Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), OBE carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, VTS (Vitesse Energy Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 30.5x, ROIC 2.2%, cap $770.5M) and GRNT (Granite Ridge Resources Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 31.3x, ROIC 3.8%, cap $763.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VTS leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while WHK leads on capital efficiency (7.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBE?

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For Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #102 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.80 (+0.00%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OBE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OBE SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 70% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 52.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$11.22+7.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$12.09-0.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$12.00-1.7% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$11.80+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OBE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, OBE faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.55) or 200D SMA ($10.21) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.85) toward Bear Floor ($9.24).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OBE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OBE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

52.330 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)

7 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE70% OF RANGE

L: $5$11.80H: $15

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on OBE

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

NEUTRAL (60)

14.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (57)

20/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like OBE

✓Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OBE Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

OBE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.40%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $11.79H $11.80L $11.68C $11.80VOL 392.5K

RES: $16.21SUP: $9.58SMA50: $11.55SMA200: $10.21

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OBE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OBE Butterfly Map → + Track OBE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OBE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OBE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OBE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OBE)

Energy Rank #102 of 211 ⚔️ VTS vs OBE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (OBE vs. VTS, GRNT, WHK, GPRK)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) ranks #102 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #144 by equity capitalization ($779.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VTS leads on earnings valuation at 30.5x trailing P/E, while WHK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.4% ROIC and — gross margin. VTS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with OBE at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OBE ACTIVE Obsidian Energy Ltd.	C-	59/100	—	—	—	+1.03%	$779.4M	Benchmark Subject
VTS Vitesse Energy Inc.	C-	61/100	30.5x	—	2.2%	0.00%	$770.5M	/vts-vs-obe →
GRNT Granite Ridge Resources Inc.	C-	61/100	31.3x	—	3.8%	-1.04%	$763.7M	/grnt-vs-obe →
WHK WhiteHawk Minerals Corp (Class A)	D	51/100	—	—	7.4%	-0.49%	$802.5M	/whk-vs-obe →
GPRK Geopark Ltd	D+	56/100	—	—	—	+0.56%	$702.2M	/gprk-vs-obe →

2. OBE Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) operates in Oil & Gas Production (Energy) with an equity capitalization of $779.4M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. OBE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OBE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does OBE compare to VTS and GRNT in the Energy sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBE?

Where is OBE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OBE last traded at $11.80 (+1.03% on volume of 581,821 shares), positioning the stock +2.16% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.55) and +15.57% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.21). Across its 52-week range of $5.44 to $14.59, OBE sits at the 69.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.1% ($10.73 to $12.87).

OBE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell OBE stock right now?

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold — HOLD) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (steady margins), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is OBE's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

OBE's 12-month base price target is $11.85 (range $9.24 to $15.32), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: OBE RQD Cockpit OBE 12M Forecast OBE Earnings & Move OBE Dividends & DRIP OBE Insiders & 13F OBE Whale Options OBE Profit Sankey OBE News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

OBE — Obsidian Energy Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T14:14:49Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, OBE scores 59 out of 100 (grade C-, verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral"). Across the five pillars: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20 (ROIC 0%; FCF yield 0%), Whale 13F Flow 11/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 9/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 14/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

The two weakest pillars, cash engine and insider conviction, are the ones most relevant to upside. A 0% ROIC and 0% FCF yield, as reported in the market data, mean the rating does not credit the company with current cash returns on capital, so any investment case rests on future earnings or asset re-rating rather than present cash generation. The balance sheet and macro pillars are more constructive: an Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 describe a moderately sound financial profile, and Beta of 1.0 indicates market-equivalent volatility. The valuation tradeoff is that the source data does not provide earnings multiples, so an investor cannot test whether the current price is rich or cheap against earnings. The rating is therefore a balanced, cautious neutral: moderate balance-sheet strength offset by weak cash generation and limited insider conviction.

Business

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) is listed on the NYSE and operates in the Oil & Gas Production industry within the Energy sector, per the company profile. The profile identifies the company as an Energy issuer with a market capitalization of $0.8B. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or specific revenue model.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Price action (MarketBeat, "Shares Down 4.3%"): A negative price-move headline, rated YELLOW in the feed.
Trend signal (MarketBeat, crossing the 200-day moving average): A technical headline, rated YELLOW, describing the stock crossing above its 200-day moving average.
Rotation and timing commentary (Stock Traders Daily): Rated YELLOW; the source contains only the headline.
Exchange-listing note (kalkine.ca, TSX:OBE, 7 October 2026, +1.26%): Rated YELLOW; references a different listing venue than the NYSE listing in the profile.
Sector commentary (Simply Wall St, oil price spike): Rated YELLOW; the source presents it as a theme for oil and gas stocks, not a company-specific event.
Q2 2026 earnings (per the news feed, EPS beat of 88.74% followed by a -4.4% stock move, labeled "weak earnings momentum"): The only GREEN-rated item and the highest-impact catalyst. The feed's source attribution for this item is unreliable (a non-financial domain), so the figures should be treated with caution.

Risk watch items: the -4.3% and -4.4% price moves in the feed, the reported weak earnings momentum, and the 52-week range of $5.44 to $14.59, which shows wide price dispersion.

Proprietary signals: none. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is "NONE," with no butterfly links. The source data therefore does not establish any upstream supplier or downstream customer dependencies for OBE. Sector-level context is limited to the classification as Energy / Oil & Gas Production and the Simply Wall St headline on possible oil price spikes. An investor should watch the sensitivity of oil and gas production to commodity pricing, but the source does not quantify that linkage for OBE. No second-order bottleneck can be identified from the supplied data.

Open Questions

What are OBE's reported revenue, operating income, net income, EPS, free cash flow, cash, and debt for recent periods? The source provides no financial statements.
Why do the market data show 0% margins, 0% ROIC, and 0% FCF yield, and are these values reported figures or missing data?
What is the company's trailing and forward earnings base, given that P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS are unavailable?
Who are the institutional holders and insiders, and what is their recent buying or selling activity?
Given the source-attribution inconsistencies in the news feed (including a non-financial domain and a TSX reference for a NYSE-listed issuer), which catalysts can be independently confirmed?

OBE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OBE Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 5h ago

Obsidian Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:OBE) Shares Down 4.3% - Here's What Happened

MarketBeat report covering Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Traders Daily • 8h ago

How Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) Affects Rotational Strategy Timing

Stock Traders Daily report covering Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE kalkine.ca • 11h ago

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (TSX:OBE) Rises +1.26% on 7 October 2026: Why Investors Are Watching the Stock Now

kalkine.ca report covering Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 14h ago

Obsidian Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:OBE) Stock Price Crosses Above 200 Day Moving Average - What's Next?

MarketBeat report covering Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 17h ago

3 Oil And Gas Stocks For Investors Watching A Possible Oil Price Spike

Simply Wall St report covering Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST https://www.dars.gov.et/ • 20h ago

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) Q2 2026 Earnings: EPS Beat 88.74% Overshadowed by -4.4% Stock Move - Weak Earnings Momentum

https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 23h ago

Obsidian Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:OBE) Shares Climb 5.2% - Here's Why

MarketBeat report covering Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Obsidian Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:OBE) Share Price Breaks Above 50-Day Moving Average - Here's Why

MarketBeat report covering Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OBE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.80?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OBE 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $12.61 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is OBE (C- • RQD 59/100) a Buy at $11.68?

Welcome to the OBE (Obsidian Energy Ltd.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 59/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Oil & Gas Production. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.23 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $11.68

Pump the brakes on OBE — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on OBE, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Obsidian Energy Ltd. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.90 (+19.0%)

Spot @ $11.68

OBE cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on OBE, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Oil & Gas Production and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $11.68 (52-wk range $5.44 - $14.59), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.