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Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$11.68 -0.93% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.64

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $779.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.64 (-0.36%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OBE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OBE SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 0.5% FCF Margin ($21.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$11.12+7.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$11.97+0.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$12.04-3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$11.68-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OBE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OBE currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($11.55) and Max Pain ($12.26) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.32.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OBE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OBE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your OBE Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $11.68: 856.2 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $8.86

$7,586

$-2,414 (-24.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $11.36

$9,726

$-274 (-2.7%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $15.32

$13,116

+$3,116 (+31.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$12	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$14	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$10	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OBE)

✓Walkthrough of OBE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

OBE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.21%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-10-30O $11.78H $11.83L $11.65C $11.68VOL 581.2K

RES: $13.50SUP: $10.61SMA50: $11.55SMA200: $10.18

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OBE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OBE Butterfly Map → + Track OBE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OBE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OBE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OBE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OBE)

Energy Rank #132 of 211 ⚔️ VTS vs OBE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (OBE vs. VTS, GRNT, WHK, GPRK)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) ranks #132 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #144 by equity capitalization ($779.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VTS leads on earnings valuation at 30.5x trailing P/E, while WHK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.4% ROIC and — gross margin. VTS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with OBE at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OBE ACTIVE Obsidian Energy Ltd.	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-0.93%	$779.4M	Benchmark Subject
VTS Vitesse Energy Inc.	D+	57/100	30.5x	—	2.2%	+0.11%	$770.5M	/vts-vs-obe →
GRNT Granite Ridge Resources Inc.	D+	57/100	31.3x	—	3.8%	-0.34%	$763.7M	/grnt-vs-obe →
WHK WhiteHawk Minerals Corp (Class A)	D	50/100	—	—	7.4%	-2.26%	$802.5M	/whk-vs-obe →
GPRK Geopark Ltd	D	50/100	—	—	—	-1.64%	$702.2M	/gprk-vs-obe →

2. OBE Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) operates in Oil & Gas Production (Energy) with an equity capitalization of $779.4M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. OBE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OBE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (NYSE: OBE) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $11.68 (-0.93% 1D, market cap $779.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, OBE ranks #132 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OBE compare to VTS and GRNT in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), OBE carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, VTS (Vitesse Energy Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 30.5x, ROIC 2.2%, cap $770.5M) and GRNT (Granite Ridge Resources Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 31.3x, ROIC 3.8%, cap $763.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VTS leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while WHK leads on capital efficiency (7.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBE?

For Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #132 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OBE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OBE last traded at $11.68 (-0.93% on volume of 392,459 shares), positioning the stock +1.13% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.55) and +14.73% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.18). Across its 52-week range of $5.47 to $14.59, OBE sits at the 68.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($10.55 to $12.81).

OBE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is OBE's 12-month stock price target?

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $11.36 (-2.7% from $11.68), with a bull-case target of $15.32 and a bear-case floor of $8.86.

Is OBE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates OBE D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 52/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: OBE RQD Cockpit OBE 12M Forecast OBE Earnings & Move OBE Dividends & DRIP OBE Insiders & 13F OBE Whale Options OBE Profit Sankey OBE News & Why