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VAALCO Energy Inc. (EGY) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$6.34 -1.40% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.31

VAALCO Energy Inc. (EGY) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $666.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.31 (-0.44%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 59.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EGY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY EGY SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 59.2% FCF Margin ($212.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$6.01+3.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$6.20+5.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$6.56-3.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$6.34-8.5% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (27) → D- (35)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EGY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While EGY currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.05) and Max Pain ($6.66) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.06.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EGY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “EGY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

59.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.31>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE89% OF RANGE

L: $3$6.34H: $7

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 13 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 13 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on EGY

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (45)

-4.2% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (25)

Altman-Z 1.31 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (35)

13/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like EGY

✓Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EGY)

✓Walkthrough of EGY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

EGY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.50%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-10-30O $6.35H $6.45L $6.33C $6.34VOL 1.25M

RES: $6.59SUP: $5.90SMA50: $6.05SMA200: $5.65

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EGY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EGY Butterfly Map → + Track EGY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -25.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EGY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EGY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EGY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EGY)

Energy Rank #194 of 211 ⚔️ GPRK vs EGY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (EGY vs. GPRK, WTI, GRNT, VTS)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, VAALCO Energy Inc. (EGY) ranks #194 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #148 by equity capitalization ($666.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VTS leads on earnings valuation at 30.5x trailing P/E, while GRNT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.8% ROIC and — gross margin. GRNT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with EGY at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
EGY ACTIVE VAALCO Energy Inc.	D-	35/100	—	—	-4.2%	-1.40%	$666.9M	Benchmark Subject
GPRK Geopark Ltd	D	50/100	—	—	—	-1.64%	$702.2M	/gprk-vs-egy →
WTI W&T Offshore Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	-35.0%	-4.50%	$608.3M	/wti-vs-egy →
GRNT Granite Ridge Resources Inc.	D+	57/100	31.3x	—	3.8%	-0.34%	$763.7M	/grnt-vs-egy →
VTS Vitesse Energy Inc.	D+	57/100	30.5x	—	2.2%	+0.11%	$770.5M	/vts-vs-egy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000894627

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), VAALCO Energy Inc. (EGY) reported GAAP revenue of $359.3M (-25.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $479.0M , and -21.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$41.4M, operating cash flow of $212.7M, and free cash flow of $212.7M (+87.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, EGY closed FY2025 with $913.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.31, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$359.3M	-$41.4M	$212.7M	$212.7M	$913.4M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$479.0M	$58.5M	$113.7M	$113.7M	$955.0M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$455.1M	$60.4M	$223.6M	$223.6M	—	—

3. EGY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EGY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, VAALCO Energy Inc. (NYSE: EGY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $6.34 (-1.40% 1D, market cap $666.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, EGY ranks #194 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EGY compare to GPRK and WTI in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), EGY carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -4.2%. By comparison, GPRK (Geopark Ltd) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $702.2M) and WTI (W&T Offshore Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $608.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VTS leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while GRNT leads on capital efficiency (3.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EGY?

Per EGY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000894627), VAALCO Energy Inc. generated $359.3M in revenue (-25.0% YoY), -$41.4M in net income, and $212.7M in free cash flow against $913.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EGY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EGY last traded at $6.34 (-1.40% on volume of 1,443,884 shares), positioning the stock +4.79% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.05) and +12.21% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.65). Across its 52-week range of $3.37 to $6.72, EGY sits at the 88.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.8% ($5.91 to $6.77).

EGY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell EGY stock right now?

VAALCO Energy Inc. (EGY) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 35/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is EGY's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

EGY's 12-month base price target is $5.68 (range $4.43 to $7.06), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: EGY RQD Cockpit EGY 12M Forecast EGY Earnings & Move EGY Dividends & DRIP EGY Insiders & 13F EGY Whale Options EGY Profit Sankey EGY News & Why