Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / VITL / financials

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Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$9.29 +0.43% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.28

Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $398.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.28 (-0.11%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VITL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VITL SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.18 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$9.33-10% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$8.40+8.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$9.14+1.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$9.29-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VITL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VITL currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.78) and Max Pain ($9.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $40.57.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VITL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VITL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How VITL Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $471.9M

FY24

Rev $606.3M

FY25

Rev $759.4M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$759.4M	37.6%	11.6%	$66.3M	-$48.2M	23.1%
FY 2024	$606.3M	37.9%	10.5%	$53.4M	$36.2M	42.3%
FY 2023	$471.9M	37.6%	7%	$25.6M	$50.9M	23.1%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VITL)

✓Walkthrough of VITL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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VITL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.94%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $9.35H $9.63L $8.54C $9.29VOL 2.43M

RES: $11.49SUP: $7.89SMA50: $9.78SMA200: $14.00

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VITL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VITL Butterfly Map → + Track VITL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-10.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +25.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VITL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VITL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VITL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VITL)

Consumer Staples Rank #98 of 146 ⚔️ LWAY vs VITL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (VITL vs. LWAY, AFRI, OTLY, OFRM)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) ranks #98 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #87 by equity capitalization ($398.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VITL leads on earnings valuation at 6.0x trailing P/E, while VITL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.1% ROIC and 37.6% gross margin. LWAY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with VITL at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VITL ACTIVE Vital Farms Inc.	D	48/100	6.0x	37.6%	23.1%	+0.43%	$398.8M	Benchmark Subject
LWAY Lifeway Foods Inc.	C-	59/100	25.3x	27.4%	15.9%	+1.84%	$350.8M	/lway-vs-vitl →
AFRI Forafric Global PLC	E	21/100	—	10.4%	-16.5%	-0.08%	$340.6M	/afri-vs-vitl →
OTLY Oatly Group AB	D	49/100	—	—	—	-6.54%	$255.3M	/otly-vs-vitl →
OFRM Once Upon a Farm PBC	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-1.72%	$670.6M	/ofrm-vs-vitl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0001579733

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) reported GAAP revenue of $759.4M (+25.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $606.3M , and +60.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $66.3M, operating cash flow of $33.7M, and free cash flow of -$48.2M (-233.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, VITL closed FY2025 with $518.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.18, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-28	$759.4M	$66.3M	$33.7M	-$48.2M	$518.7M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-29	$606.3M	$53.4M	$64.8M	$36.2M	$359.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$471.9M	$25.6M	$50.9M	$50.9M	—	—

3. VITL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VITL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Vital Farms Inc. (NASDAQ: VITL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $9.29 (+0.43% 1D, market cap $398.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, VITL ranks #98 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VITL compare to LWAY and AFRI in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), VITL carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.0x, gross margin of 37.6%, and ROIC of 23.1%. By comparison, LWAY (Lifeway Foods Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 25.3x, ROIC 15.9%, cap $350.8M) and AFRI (Forafric Global PLC) posts a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.5%, cap $340.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VITL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while VITL leads on capital efficiency (23.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VITL?

Per VITL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001579733), Vital Farms Inc. generated $759.4M in revenue (+25.3% YoY), $66.3M in net income, and -$48.2M in free cash flow against $518.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VITL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VITL last traded at $9.29 (+0.43% on volume of 967,081 shares), positioning the stock -5.01% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.78) and -33.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.00). Across its 52-week range of $7.95 to $38.64, VITL sits at the 4.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.13 to $10.45).

VITL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Vital Farms Inc. (VITL)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), VITL converted $759.4M of revenue into a 37.6% gross margin, 11.6% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: VITL RQD Cockpit VITL 12M Forecast VITL Earnings & Move VITL Dividends & DRIP VITL Insiders & 13F VITL Whale Options VITL Profit Sankey VITL News & Why