Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / VITL / earnings

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Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$9.29 +0.43% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.28

Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $398.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.28 (-0.11%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VITL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY VITL SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+12/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.18 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$9.33-10% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$8.40+8.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$9.14+1.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$9.29-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VITL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VITL currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.78) and Max Pain ($9.75) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $40.57.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VITL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “VITL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 27, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 27, 2026 (~55 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$1.16 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

VITL Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 48/100

Trailing EPS: $1.54 • YoY Revenue Growth: 25.3%

Model Bullish Setup (48/100)Model Risk Weight (52/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-28	$759.4M	$66.3M	-$48.2M	37.6%
FY 2024	2024-12-29	$606.3M	$53.4M	$36.2M	37.9%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$471.9M	$25.6M	$50.9M	37.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VITL)

✓Walkthrough of VITL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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VITL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.94%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $9.35H $9.63L $8.54C $9.29VOL 2.43M

RES: $11.49SUP: $7.89SMA50: $9.78SMA200: $14.00

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VITL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VITL Butterfly Map → + Track VITL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-10.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +25.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VITL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VITL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VITL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VITL)

Consumer Staples Rank #98 of 146 ⚔️ LWAY vs VITL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (VITL vs. LWAY, AFRI, OTLY, OFRM)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) ranks #98 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #87 by equity capitalization ($398.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VITL leads on earnings valuation at 6.0x trailing P/E, while VITL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.1% ROIC and 37.6% gross margin. LWAY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with VITL at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
VITL ACTIVE Vital Farms Inc.	D	48/100	6.0x	37.6%	23.1%	+0.43%	$398.8M	Benchmark Subject
LWAY Lifeway Foods Inc.	C-	59/100	25.3x	27.4%	15.9%	+1.84%	$350.8M	/lway-vs-vitl →
AFRI Forafric Global PLC	E	21/100	—	10.4%	-16.5%	-0.08%	$340.6M	/afri-vs-vitl →
OTLY Oatly Group AB	D	49/100	—	—	—	-6.54%	$255.3M	/otly-vs-vitl →
OFRM Once Upon a Farm PBC	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-1.72%	$670.6M	/ofrm-vs-vitl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-28 • CIK 0001579733

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28), Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) reported GAAP revenue of $759.4M (+25.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $606.3M , and +60.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $66.3M, operating cash flow of $33.7M, and free cash flow of -$48.2M (-233.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, VITL closed FY2025 with $518.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.18, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-28	$759.4M	$66.3M	$33.7M	-$48.2M	$518.7M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-29	$606.3M	$53.4M	$64.8M	$36.2M	$359.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$471.9M	$25.6M	$50.9M	$50.9M	—	—

3. VITL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VITL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Vital Farms Inc. (NASDAQ: VITL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $9.29 (+0.43% 1D, market cap $398.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, VITL ranks #98 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VITL compare to LWAY and AFRI in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), VITL carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.0x, gross margin of 37.6%, and ROIC of 23.1%. By comparison, LWAY (Lifeway Foods Inc.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 25.3x, ROIC 15.9%, cap $350.8M) and AFRI (Forafric Global PLC) posts a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.5%, cap $340.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VITL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while VITL leads on capital efficiency (23.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VITL?

Per VITL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-28, CIK 0001579733), Vital Farms Inc. generated $759.4M in revenue (+25.3% YoY), $66.3M in net income, and -$48.2M in free cash flow against $518.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VITL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VITL last traded at $9.29 (+0.43% on volume of 967,081 shares), positioning the stock -5.01% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.78) and -33.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.00). Across its 52-week range of $7.95 to $38.64, VITL sits at the 4.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 42.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($8.13 to $10.45).

VITL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is VITL's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Vital Farms Inc. (VITL)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 27, 2026.

How much is VITL stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for VITL, spanning a range between $8.13 and $10.45.

Direct Sub-Reports: VITL RQD Cockpit VITL 12M Forecast VITL Earnings & Move VITL Dividends & DRIP VITL Insiders & 13F VITL Whale Options VITL Profit Sankey VITL News & Why