Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ULCC / insiders

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Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$6.48 +5.02% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.53

Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.49B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.53 (+0.71%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ULCC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ULCC SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (42% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (36% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 64% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 62.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$5.86-19.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$4.72+4.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$4.94+31.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$6.48-8.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (28) → D- (36)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ULCC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ULCC currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.72) and Max Pain ($6.80) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ULCC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ULCC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

ULCC Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (ULCC)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on ULCC. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ULCC)

✓Walkthrough of ULCC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

ULCC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +78.51%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $6.34H $6.49L $6.19C $6.48VOL 3.64M

RES: $8.15SUP: $4.39SMA50: $5.72SMA200: $5.42

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ULCC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ULCC Butterfly Map → + Track ULCC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ULCC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ULCC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ULCC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ULCC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #884 of 1011 ⚔️ JBLU vs ULCC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ULCC vs. JBLU, ALGT, AERO, RJET)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) ranks #884 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #458 by equity capitalization ($1.49B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RJET leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while RJET leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.1% ROIC and — gross margin. AERO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with ULCC at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ULCC ACTIVE Frontier Group Holdings Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-35.0%	+5.02%	$1.49B	Benchmark Subject
JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation	D-	41/100	—	—	-35.0%	+7.02%	$1.15B	/jblu-vs-ulcc →
ALGT Allegiant Travel Company	D	50/100	—	—	1.1%	+0.83%	$1.99B	/algt-vs-ulcc →
AERO Grupo Aeromexico S.A.B. de C.V. (each representing ten (10) )	D+	58/100	—	—	—	+0.07%	$2.22B	/aero-vs-ulcc →
RJET Republic Airways Holdings Inc.	D+	52/100	12.3x	—	11.1%	+8.06%	$935.0M	/rjet-vs-ulcc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001670076

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) reported GAAP revenue of $3.72B (-1.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.77B , and +3.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$137.0M, operating cash flow of -$525.0M, and free cash flow of -$525.0M (-540.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ULCC closed FY2025 with $7.22B in total assets against $313.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.40, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.72B	-$137.0M	-$525.0M	-$525.0M	$7.22B	$313.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.77B	$85.0M	-$82.0M	-$82.0M	$6.15B	$241.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.59B	-$11.0M	-$261.0M	-$261.0M	—	—

3. ULCC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ULCC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ULCC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $6.48 (+5.02% 1D, market cap $1.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 4/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ULCC ranks #884 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ULCC compare to JBLU and ALGT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), ULCC carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, JBLU (JetBlue Airways Corporation) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.15B) and ALGT (Allegiant Travel Company) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.1%, cap $1.99B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJET leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while RJET leads on capital efficiency (11.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULCC?

Per ULCC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001670076), Frontier Group Holdings Inc. generated $3.72B in revenue (-1.4% YoY), -$137.0M in net income, and -$525.0M in free cash flow against $7.22B in total assets and $313.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ULCC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ULCC last traded at $6.48 (+5.02% on volume of 5,217,749 shares), positioning the stock +13.29% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.72) and +19.56% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.42). Across its 52-week range of $3.02 to $8.40, ULCC sits at the 64.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.67 to $7.29).

ULCC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are ULCC insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies ULCC leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: ULCC RQD Cockpit ULCC 12M Forecast ULCC Earnings & Move ULCC Dividends & DRIP ULCC Insiders & 13F ULCC Whale Options ULCC Profit Sankey ULCC News & Why