Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / ULCC / earnings

JBLU (41) ALGT (50) AERO (58) RJET (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$6.48 +5.02% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.53

Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $1.49B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ULCC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ULCC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: ULCC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $6.48 (+5.02% 1D, market cap $1.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 4/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, ULCC ranks #884 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ULCC compare to JBLU and ALGT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), ULCC carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, JBLU (JetBlue Airways Corporation) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.15B) and ALGT (Allegiant Travel Company) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.1%, cap $1.99B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJET leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while RJET leads on capital efficiency (11.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULCC?

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Per ULCC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001670076), Frontier Group Holdings Inc. generated $3.72B in revenue (-1.4% YoY), -$137.0M in net income, and -$525.0M in free cash flow against $7.22B in total assets and $313.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.53 (+0.71%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ULCC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ULCC SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (42% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (36% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 64% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 62.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$5.86-19.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$4.72+4.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$4.94+31.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$6.48-8.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (28) → D- (36)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ULCC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ULCC currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.72) and Max Pain ($6.80) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ULCC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ULCC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.81 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

ULCC Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 36/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: -1.4%

Model Bullish Setup (36/100)Model Risk Weight (64/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$3.72B	-$137.0M	-$525.0M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$3.77B	$85.0M	-$82.0M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$3.59B	-$11.0M	-$261.0M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ULCC)

✓Walkthrough of ULCC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ULCC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +78.51%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $6.34H $6.49L $6.19C $6.48VOL 3.64M

RES: $8.15SUP: $4.39SMA50: $5.72SMA200: $5.42

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ULCC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ULCC Butterfly Map → + Track ULCC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ULCC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ULCC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ULCC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ULCC)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #884 of 1011 ⚔️ JBLU vs ULCC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (ULCC vs. JBLU, ALGT, AERO, RJET)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) ranks #884 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #458 by equity capitalization ($1.49B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RJET leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while RJET leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.1% ROIC and — gross margin. AERO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with ULCC at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ULCC ACTIVE Frontier Group Holdings Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-35.0%	+5.02%	$1.49B	Benchmark Subject
JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation	D-	41/100	—	—	-35.0%	+7.02%	$1.15B	/jblu-vs-ulcc →
ALGT Allegiant Travel Company	D	50/100	—	—	1.1%	+0.83%	$1.99B	/algt-vs-ulcc →
AERO Grupo Aeromexico S.A.B. de C.V. (each representing ten (10) )	D+	58/100	—	—	—	+0.07%	$2.22B	/aero-vs-ulcc →
RJET Republic Airways Holdings Inc.	D+	52/100	12.3x	—	11.1%	+8.06%	$935.0M	/rjet-vs-ulcc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001670076

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC) reported GAAP revenue of $3.72B (-1.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.77B , and +3.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$137.0M, operating cash flow of -$525.0M, and free cash flow of -$525.0M (-540.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, ULCC closed FY2025 with $7.22B in total assets against $313.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.40, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$3.72B	-$137.0M	-$525.0M	-$525.0M	$7.22B	$313.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.77B	$85.0M	-$82.0M	-$82.0M	$6.15B	$241.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.59B	-$11.0M	-$261.0M	-$261.0M	—	—

3. ULCC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ULCC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ULCC compare to JBLU and ALGT in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ULCC?

Where is ULCC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ULCC last traded at $6.48 (+5.02% on volume of 5,217,749 shares), positioning the stock +13.29% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.72) and +19.56% above its 200-day simple moving average ($5.42). Across its 52-week range of $3.02 to $8.40, ULCC sits at the 64.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.67 to $7.29).

ULCC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is ULCC's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (ULCC)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is ULCC stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12.5% event move for ULCC, spanning a range between $5.67 and $7.29.

Direct Sub-Reports: ULCC RQD Cockpit ULCC 12M Forecast ULCC Earnings & Move ULCC Dividends & DRIP ULCC Insiders & 13F ULCC Whale Options ULCC Profit Sankey ULCC News & Why