Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / RJET

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Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$19.97 +8.06% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.22

Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $935.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RJET Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RJET stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RJET) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $19.97 (+8.06% 1D, market cap $935.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RJET ranks #604 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RJET compare to AZUL and JBLU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), RJET carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.1%. By comparison, AZUL (Azul S.A. each representing two (2)) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $773.6M) and JBLU (JetBlue Airways Corporation) posts a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJET leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while RJET leads on capital efficiency (11.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RJET?

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Per RJET's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000810332), Republic Airways Holdings Inc. generated $1.35B in revenue (+15.5% YoY), $76.2M in net income, and -$74.9M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.22 (+1.26%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RJET)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RJET SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.16 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 12.5% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$16.96-5.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$16.03+7.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$17.30+15.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$19.97-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RJET Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RJET currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($17.73) and Max Pain ($20.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.04.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RJET• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RJET Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM

66.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

1.16>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE41% OF RANGE

L: $15$19.97H: $27

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on RJET

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (35)

11.1% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -8.01% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 1.16 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

NEUTRAL (52)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like RJET

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RJET)

✓Walkthrough of RJET's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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RJET // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.79%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $18.48H $19.97L $18.48C $19.97VOL 162.5K

RES: $20.56SUP: $15.14SMA50: $17.73SMA200: $18.83

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RJET Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RJET Butterfly Map → + Track RJET →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RJET today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RJET. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RJET today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RJET)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #604 of 1011 ⚔️ AZUL vs RJET Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (RJET vs. AZUL, JBLU, VLRS, ULCC)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) ranks #604 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #517 by equity capitalization ($935.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RJET leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while RJET leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.1% ROIC and — gross margin. RJET currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RJET ACTIVE Republic Airways Holdings Inc.	D	48/100	12.3x	—	11.1%	+8.06%	$935.0M	Benchmark Subject
AZUL Azul S.A. each representing two (2)	D	48/100	—	—	—	+2.39%	$773.6M	/azul-vs-rjet →
JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation	E	23/100	—	—	-35.0%	+7.02%	$1.15B	/jblu-vs-rjet →
VLRS Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates	D	45/100	—	—	—	+1.64%	$720.4M	/vlrs-vs-rjet →
ULCC Frontier Group Holdings Inc.	E	34/100	—	—	-35.0%	+5.02%	$1.49B	/ulcc-vs-rjet →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000810332

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) reported GAAP revenue of $1.35B (+15.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.17B , and +21.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $76.2M, operating cash flow of $322.0M, and free cash flow of -$74.9M (-12383.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, RJET closed FY2025 with $3.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.16, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.35B	$76.2M	$322.0M	-$74.9M	$3.28B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.17B	$64.6M	$226.1M	-$600.0K	$2.77B	$83.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.11B	$54.8M	$329.2M	$329.2M	—	—

3. RJET Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RJET stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does RJET compare to AZUL and JBLU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RJET?

Where is RJET trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RJET last traded at $19.97 (+8.06% on volume of 162,532 shares), positioning the stock +12.63% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.73) and +6.05% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.83). Across its 52-week range of $15.37 to $26.70, RJET sits at the 40.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($18.03 to $21.91).

RJET Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell RJET stock right now?

Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D (Sell — SELL) with 48/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 12x P/E (11% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is RJET's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

RJET's 12-month base price target is $19.07 (range $14.87 to $28.04), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: RJET RQD Cockpit RJET 12M Forecast RJET Earnings & Move RJET Dividends & DRIP RJET Insiders & 13F RJET Whale Options RJET Profit Sankey RJET News & Why