Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / RJET / earnings

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Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.3% Move

$19.97 +8.06% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.22

Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $935.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.22 (+1.26%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RJET)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY RJET SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.3% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 41% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 63.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 12.5% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$17.20-6.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$16.04+5.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$16.94+17.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$19.97-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RJET Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RJET currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($17.71) and Max Pain ($20.97) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $28.04.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RJET• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “RJET Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.3% Swing Band

±$1.86 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

RJET Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 52/100

Trailing EPS: $1.63 • YoY Revenue Growth: 15.5%

Model Bullish Setup (52/100)Model Risk Weight (48/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$1.35B	$76.2M	-$74.9M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$1.17B	$64.6M	-$600.0K	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$1.11B	$54.8M	$329.2M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RJET)

✓Walkthrough of RJET's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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RJET // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.87%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $19.81H $19.97L $19.00C $19.97VOL 63.9K

RES: $28.78SUP: $15.18SMA50: $17.71SMA200: $18.82

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RJET Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RJET Butterfly Map → + Track RJET →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

3.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RJET today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RJET. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RJET today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RJET)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #606 of 1011 ⚔️ AZUL vs RJET Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (RJET vs. AZUL, JBLU, VLRS, ULCC)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) ranks #606 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #517 by equity capitalization ($935.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RJET leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while RJET leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.1% ROIC and — gross margin. VLRS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with RJET at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
RJET ACTIVE Republic Airways Holdings Inc.	D+	52/100	12.3x	—	11.1%	+8.06%	$935.0M	Benchmark Subject
AZUL Azul S.A. each representing two (2)	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+2.39%	$773.6M	/azul-vs-rjet →
JBLU JetBlue Airways Corporation	D-	41/100	—	—	-35.0%	+7.02%	$1.15B	/jblu-vs-rjet →
VLRS Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates	C	62/100	—	—	—	+1.64%	$720.4M	/vlrs-vs-rjet →
ULCC Frontier Group Holdings Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-35.0%	+5.02%	$1.49B	/ulcc-vs-rjet →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000810332

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) reported GAAP revenue of $1.35B (+15.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.17B , and +21.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $76.2M, operating cash flow of $322.0M, and free cash flow of -$74.9M (-12383.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, RJET closed FY2025 with $3.28B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.16, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.35B	$76.2M	$322.0M	-$74.9M	$3.28B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.17B	$64.6M	$226.1M	-$600.0K	$2.77B	$83.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.11B	$54.8M	$329.2M	$329.2M	—	—

3. RJET Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RJET stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: RJET) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $19.97 (+8.06% 1D, market cap $935.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, RJET ranks #606 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RJET compare to AZUL and JBLU in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), RJET carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.1%. By comparison, AZUL (Azul S.A. each representing two (2)) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $773.6M) and JBLU (JetBlue Airways Corporation) posts a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $1.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, RJET leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while RJET leads on capital efficiency (11.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RJET?

Per RJET's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000810332), Republic Airways Holdings Inc. generated $1.35B in revenue (+15.5% YoY), $76.2M in net income, and -$74.9M in free cash flow against $3.28B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RJET trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RJET last traded at $19.97 (+8.06% on volume of 162,532 shares), positioning the stock +12.76% above its 50-day simple moving average ($17.71) and +6.11% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.82). Across its 52-week range of $15.37 to $26.70, RJET sits at the 40.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.3% ($18.11 to $21.83).

RJET Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is RJET's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is RJET stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±9.3% event move for RJET, spanning a range between $18.11 and $21.83.

Direct Sub-Reports: RJET RQD Cockpit RJET 12M Forecast RJET Earnings & Move RJET Dividends & DRIP RJET Insiders & 13F RJET Whale Options RJET Profit Sankey RJET News & Why