Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-01, Tilly's Inc. (NYSE: TLYS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $4.34 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $132.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TLYS ranks #949 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), TLYS carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 29.7%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VNCE (Vince Holding Corp.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 10.6%, cap $137.2M) and DLTH (Duluth Holdings Inc. (Class B)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.3%, cap $167.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZUMZ leads on earnings multiple (17.3x) while CURV leads on capital efficiency (74.0% ROIC).
Per TLYS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001524025), Tilly's Inc. generated $553.6M in revenue (-2.8% YoY), -$17.5M in net income, and -$589.0K in free cash flow against $310.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.7% realized swing band)
Altman Z-Score 1.61 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
While TLYS currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.33) and Max Pain ($4.56) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.56.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) slipped -0.46% to $4.34, trading at 63% of its 52-week range ($1.14 – $6.25). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Leading CIOs and CISOs honored for leadership, innovation, enterprise security, and business impact at the SoCal ORBIE Awards on October 29, 2026, at Hyatt Regency Huntington Beach HUNTINGTON BEACH, Calif., Oct. 30, 2026
A stock with low volatility can be reassuring, but it doesn’t always mean strong long-term performance. Investors who prioritize stability may miss out on higher-reward opportunities elsewhere.
Not all profitable companies are built to last - some rely on outdated models or unsustainable advantages. Just because a business is in the green today doesn’t mean it will thrive tomorrow.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TLYS today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TLYS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) ranks #949 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #736 by equity capitalization ($132.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ZUMZ leads on earnings valuation at 17.3x trailing P/E, while CURV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 74.0% ROIC and 34.8% gross margin. ZUMZ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with TLYS at 31/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLYS
ACTIVE
Tilly's Inc. | E | 31/100 | — | 29.7% | -35.0% | -0.46% | $132.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| VNCE Vince Holding Corp. | D | 45/100 | — | — | 10.6% | -7.10% | $137.2M | /vnce-vs-tlys → |
| DLTH Duluth Holdings Inc. (Class B) | D | 50/100 | — | 53.4% | -5.3% | +4.02% | $167.2M | /dlth-vs-tlys → |
| CURV Torrid Holdings Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | 34.8% | 74.0% | +4.72% | $221.4M | /curv-vs-tlys → |
| ZUMZ Zumiez Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 17.3x | 35.8% | 6.9% | +6.55% | $231.8M | /zumz-vs-tlys → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) reported GAAP revenue of $553.6M (-2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $569.5M ) , GAAP net income of -$17.5M, operating cash flow of $4.1M, and free cash flow of -$589.0K (+98.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, TLYS closed FY2025 with $310.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.61, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2026-01-31 | $553.6M | -$17.5M | $4.1M | -$589.0K | $310.8M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2025-02-01 | $569.5M | -$46.2M | -$42.0M | -$50.2M | $342.5M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2024-02-03 | $0 | -$34.5M | -$6.7M | -$6.7M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Tilly's Inc. (NYSE: TLYS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $4.34 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $132.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TLYS ranks #949 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), TLYS carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 29.7%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VNCE (Vince Holding Corp.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 10.6%, cap $137.2M) and DLTH (Duluth Holdings Inc. (Class B)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.3%, cap $167.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZUMZ leads on earnings multiple (17.3x) while CURV leads on capital efficiency (74.0% ROIC).
Per TLYS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001524025), Tilly's Inc. generated $553.6M in revenue (-2.8% YoY), -$17.5M in net income, and -$589.0K in free cash flow against $310.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
TLYS last traded at $4.34 (-0.46% on volume of 83,319 shares), positioning the stock +0.23% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.33) and +16.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.74). Across its 52-week range of $1.14 to $6.25, TLYS sits at the 62.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($3.92 to $4.76).
Why TLYS Stock slipped -0.46% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
To protect compute speed and zero-delay Cboe BZX data quality for active members, our current $9.95/month Roarable Pro cohort is 100% full. Join the priority waiting list below and we will notify you the moment the next batch of Pro accounts opens (and lock in your $9.95/mo rate).
Link your personal ChatGPT, Claude Desktop, or Cursor via Roarable's Model Context Protocol (`mcp.roarable.com`) to query all 5,289 stocks, inspect Butterfly supply chains, and trade your `$100K Arena` account.
Interrogate SEC 10-K/10-Q filings on demand and ask custom ticker, valuation, or short-thesis questions directly to any of our 8 specialized AI Quant Analysts.
Command our AI agents to sort and sift 5,289 stocks by custom formulas, follow multi-indicator technical & cash-flow setups, and send you instant Email/SMS breakout & downgrade alerts.
Unlock sub-second Cboe BZX streaming quotes, pre-market/after-hours delta scanners, instant SEC Form 4 insider cluster alerts, and unlimited portfolio stress-testing.
All 8 Roarable Analysts (Mara Quenwick, Devon Kess, Gideon Vane, Eliott Vance, Sorel Thorne, Corin Hale, Tessa Rane, and Felix Orven) are proprietary AI Quant Analysts and automated algorithmic specialists — not human financial advisors, fiduciaries, or registered broker-dealers. While one-to-many daily stock ratings and briefings are free, custom 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alert agents, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections consume dedicated per-user compute and require a $9.95/month Roarable Pro membership. All AI outputs are for educational and research purposes only and never constitute individualized investment advice.
Enter your Google email below for instant 1-step account activation, daily A–E stock rating alerts, and immediate access to your $100,000.00 Paper Trading Arena account.