Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TLYS / earnings

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Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±9.7% Move

Q: Where is TLYS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TLYS last traded at $4.34 (-0.46% on volume of 83,319 shares), positioning the stock +0.23% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.33) and +16.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.74). Across its 52-week range of $1.14 to $6.25, TLYS sits at the 62.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($3.92 to $4.76).

Q: When is TLYS's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Tilly's Inc. (TLYS)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Jan 30, 2027.

Q: How much is TLYS stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±9.7% event move for TLYS, spanning a range between $3.92 and $4.76.

$4.34 -0.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.33

Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $132.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TLYS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TLYS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Tilly's Inc. (NYSE: TLYS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $4.34 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $132.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TLYS ranks #949 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TLYS compare to VNCE and DLTH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), TLYS carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 29.7%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VNCE (Vince Holding Corp.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 10.6%, cap $137.2M) and DLTH (Duluth Holdings Inc. (Class B)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.3%, cap $167.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZUMZ leads on earnings multiple (17.3x) while CURV leads on capital efficiency (74.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLYS?

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Per TLYS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001524025), Tilly's Inc. generated $553.6M in revenue (-2.8% YoY), -$17.5M in net income, and -$589.0K in free cash flow against $310.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.33 (-0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TLYS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TLYS SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.61 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$4.46+3.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$4.60-10% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$4.14+4.8% Next Q

Current

Grade E$4.34-9.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (39) → E (31)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TLYS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TLYS currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.33) and Max Pain ($4.56) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.56.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TLYS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TLYS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 31%NO 69%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Jan 30, 2027 (~89 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±9.7% Swing Band

±$0.42 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TLYS Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 31/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (31/100)Model Risk Weight (69/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2026-01-31	$553.6M	-$17.5M	-$589.0K	29.7%
FY 2024	2025-02-01	$569.5M	-$46.2M	-$50.2M	26.3%
FY 2023	2024-02-03	$0	-$34.5M	-$6.7M	29.7%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TLYS)

✓Walkthrough of TLYS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TLYS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.63%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $4.26H $4.34L $4.15C $4.34VOL 163.7K

RES: $6.47SUP: $4.15SMA50: $4.33SMA200: $3.74

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TLYS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TLYS Butterfly Map → + Track TLYS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TLYS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TLYS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TLYS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TLYS)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #949 of 1011 ⚔️ VNCE vs TLYS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TLYS vs. VNCE, DLTH, CURV, ZUMZ)

Industry: Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores (25 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) ranks #949 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #736 by equity capitalization ($132.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ZUMZ leads on earnings valuation at 17.3x trailing P/E, while CURV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 74.0% ROIC and 34.8% gross margin. ZUMZ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with TLYS at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TLYS ACTIVE Tilly's Inc.	E	31/100	—	29.7%	-35.0%	-0.46%	$132.7M	Benchmark Subject
VNCE Vince Holding Corp.	D	45/100	—	—	10.6%	-7.10%	$137.2M	/vnce-vs-tlys →
DLTH Duluth Holdings Inc. (Class B)	D	50/100	—	53.4%	-5.3%	+4.02%	$167.2M	/dlth-vs-tlys →
CURV Torrid Holdings Inc.	D-	42/100	—	34.8%	74.0%	+4.72%	$221.4M	/curv-vs-tlys →
ZUMZ Zumiez Inc.	B-	70/100	17.3x	35.8%	6.9%	+6.55%	$231.8M	/zumz-vs-tlys →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001524025

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) reported GAAP revenue of $553.6M (-2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $569.5M ) , GAAP net income of -$17.5M, operating cash flow of $4.1M, and free cash flow of -$589.0K (+98.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, TLYS closed FY2025 with $310.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.61, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-31	$553.6M	-$17.5M	$4.1M	-$589.0K	$310.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-02-01	$569.5M	-$46.2M	-$42.0M	-$50.2M	$342.5M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-02-03	$0	-$34.5M	-$6.7M	-$6.7M	—	—

3. TLYS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TLYS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TLYS compare to VNCE and DLTH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLYS?

Where is TLYS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TLYS last traded at $4.34 (-0.46% on volume of 83,319 shares), positioning the stock +0.23% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.33) and +16.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.74). Across its 52-week range of $1.14 to $6.25, TLYS sits at the 62.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($3.92 to $4.76).