Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TLYS / forecast

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Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is TLYS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Tilly's Inc. (NYSE: TLYS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $4.34 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $132.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TLYS ranks #949 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does TLYS compare to VNCE and DLTH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), TLYS carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 29.7%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VNCE (Vince Holding Corp.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 10.6%, cap $137.2M) and DLTH (Duluth Holdings Inc. (Class B)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.3%, cap $167.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZUMZ leads on earnings multiple (17.3x) while CURV leads on capital efficiency (74.0% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLYS?

Per TLYS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001524025), Tilly's Inc. generated $553.6M in revenue (-2.8% YoY), -$17.5M in net income, and -$589.0K in free cash flow against $310.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is TLYS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TLYS last traded at $4.34 (-0.46% on volume of 83,319 shares), positioning the stock +0.23% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.33) and +16.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.74). Across its 52-week range of $1.14 to $6.25, TLYS sits at the 62.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($3.92 to $4.76).

Q: What is TLYS's 12-month stock price target?

Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $3.81 (-12.2% from $4.34), with a bull-case target of $6.56 and a bear-case floor of $2.97.

Q: Is TLYS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates TLYS E (Strong Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 31/100.

$4.34 -0.46% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.33

Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $132.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.33 (-0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TLYS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TLYS SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 1.61 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$4.46+3.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$4.60-10% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$4.14+4.8% Next Q

Current

Grade E$4.34-9.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (39) → E (31)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TLYS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TLYS currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.33) and Max Pain ($4.56) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.56.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TLYS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TLYS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 31%NO 69%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TLYS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $4.34: 2304.1 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.97

$6,843

$-3,157 (-31.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $3.81

$8,779

$-1,221 (-12.2%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $6.56

$15,115

+$5,115 (+51.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$4	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$6	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$3	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TLYS)

✓Walkthrough of TLYS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TLYS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.63%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $4.26H $4.34L $4.15C $4.34VOL 163.7K

RES: $6.47SUP: $4.15SMA50: $4.33SMA200: $3.74

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TLYS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TLYS Butterfly Map → + Track TLYS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TLYS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TLYS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TLYS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TLYS)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #949 of 1011 ⚔️ VNCE vs TLYS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TLYS vs. VNCE, DLTH, CURV, ZUMZ)

Industry: Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores (25 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) ranks #949 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #736 by equity capitalization ($132.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ZUMZ leads on earnings valuation at 17.3x trailing P/E, while CURV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 74.0% ROIC and 34.8% gross margin. ZUMZ currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with TLYS at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TLYS ACTIVE Tilly's Inc.	E	31/100	—	29.7%	-35.0%	-0.46%	$132.7M	Benchmark Subject
VNCE Vince Holding Corp.	D	45/100	—	—	10.6%	-7.10%	$137.2M	/vnce-vs-tlys →
DLTH Duluth Holdings Inc. (Class B)	D	50/100	—	53.4%	-5.3%	+4.02%	$167.2M	/dlth-vs-tlys →
CURV Torrid Holdings Inc.	D-	42/100	—	34.8%	74.0%	+4.72%	$221.4M	/curv-vs-tlys →
ZUMZ Zumiez Inc.	B-	70/100	17.3x	35.8%	6.9%	+6.55%	$231.8M	/zumz-vs-tlys →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001524025

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) reported GAAP revenue of $553.6M (-2.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $569.5M ) , GAAP net income of -$17.5M, operating cash flow of $4.1M, and free cash flow of -$589.0K (+98.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, TLYS closed FY2025 with $310.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.61, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-01-31	$553.6M	-$17.5M	$4.1M	-$589.0K	$310.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-02-01	$569.5M	-$46.2M	-$42.0M	-$50.2M	$342.5M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-02-03	$0	-$34.5M	-$6.7M	-$6.7M	—	—

3. TLYS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TLYS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Tilly's Inc. (NYSE: TLYS) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $4.34 (-0.46% 1D, market cap $132.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TLYS ranks #949 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TLYS compare to VNCE and DLTH in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), TLYS carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 29.7%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VNCE (Vince Holding Corp.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 10.6%, cap $137.2M) and DLTH (Duluth Holdings Inc. (Class B)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.3%, cap $167.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZUMZ leads on earnings multiple (17.3x) while CURV leads on capital efficiency (74.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLYS?

Per TLYS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001524025), Tilly's Inc. generated $553.6M in revenue (-2.8% YoY), -$17.5M in net income, and -$589.0K in free cash flow against $310.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TLYS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TLYS last traded at $4.34 (-0.46% on volume of 83,319 shares), positioning the stock +0.23% above its 50-day simple moving average ($4.33) and +16.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($3.74). Across its 52-week range of $1.14 to $6.25, TLYS sits at the 62.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.7% ($3.92 to $4.76).

TLYS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TLYS's 12-month stock price target?

Tilly's Inc. (TLYS) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $3.81 (-12.2% from $4.34), with a bull-case target of $6.56 and a bear-case floor of $2.97.