Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TLF

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Tandy Leather Factory Inc. (TLF) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell TLF stock right now?

Tandy Leather Factory Inc. (TLF) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 43/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

Q: What is TLF's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TLF's 12-month base price target is $2.11 (range $1.65 to $3.53), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$2.26 +0.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.26

Tandy Leather Factory Inc. (TLF) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $18.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.26 (-0.11%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TLF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TLF SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 13% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 24.6 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$2.49-4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.39-4.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$2.28-0.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$2.26-6.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → D- (43)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TLF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TLF currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.51) and Max Pain ($2.37) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.53.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TLF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TLF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

24.630 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE13% OF RANGE

L: $2$2.26H: $3

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 4 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 24 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on TLF

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (20)

-2.1% ROIC with 57.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (43)

15/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TLF

✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TLF)

✓Walkthrough of TLF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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TLF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.42%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $2.30H $2.30L $2.20C $2.26VOL 5.9K

RES: $2.83SUP: $2.07SMA50: $2.51SMA200: $2.49

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TLF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TLF Butterfly Map → + Track TLF →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TLF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TLF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TLF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TLF)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #783 of 1011 ⚔️ PASW vs TLF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TLF vs. PASW, BIRD, BRIA, NCI)

Industry: Apparel (27 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tandy Leather Factory Inc. (TLF) ranks #783 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #890 by equity capitalization ($18.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NCI leads on earnings valuation at 153.8x trailing P/E, while NCI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.6% ROIC and 36.9% gross margin. BRIA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with TLF at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TLF ACTIVE Tandy Leather Factory Inc.	D-	43/100	—	57.0%	-2.1%	+0.44%	$18.5M	Benchmark Subject
PASW Ping An Biomedical Co. Ltd. (Class A)	E	34/100	—	2.8%	—	-0.20%	$15.6M	/pasw-vs-tlf →
BIRD Smartbird Inc. (Class A)	D-	37/100	—	41.0%	-35.0%	-0.93%	$25.0M	/bird-vs-tlf →
BRIA BrilliA Inc (Class A)	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-4.11%	$42.9M	/bria-vs-tlf →
NCI Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited (Class A)	D-	42/100	153.8x	36.9%	2.6%	-1.68%	$6.6M	/nci-vs-tlf →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000909724

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tandy Leather Factory Inc. (TLF) reported GAAP revenue of $76.3M (+2.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $74.4M , and +0.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $9.1M, operating cash flow of -$556.0K, and free cash flow of -$8.1M (-617.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, TLF closed FY2025 with $86.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$76.3M	$9.1M	-$556.0K	-$8.1M	$86.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$74.4M	$827.0K	$4.5M	$1.6M	$74.9M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$76.2M	$3.8M	$4.5M	$4.5M	—	—

3. TLF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TLF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Tandy Leather Factory Inc. (NASDAQ: TLF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $2.26 (+0.44% 1D, market cap $18.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TLF ranks #783 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TLF compare to PASW and BIRD in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Apparel), TLF carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 57.0%, and ROIC of -2.1%. By comparison, PASW (Ping An Biomedical Co. Ltd. (Class A)) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $15.6M) and BIRD (Smartbird Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $25.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NCI leads on earnings multiple (153.8x) while NCI leads on capital efficiency (2.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLF?

Per TLF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000909724), Tandy Leather Factory Inc. generated $76.3M in revenue (+2.6% YoY), $9.1M in net income, and -$8.1M in free cash flow against $86.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TLF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TLF last traded at $2.26 (+0.44% on volume of 3,276 shares), positioning the stock -9.96% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.51) and -9.24% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.49). Across its 52-week range of $2.09 to $3.36, TLF sits at the 13.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 24.6 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.0% ($2.03 to $2.49).

TLF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell TLF stock right now?

Tandy Leather Factory Inc. (TLF) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 43/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is TLF's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TLF's 12-month base price target is $2.11 (range $1.65 to $3.53), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: TLF RQD Cockpit TLF 12M Forecast TLF Earnings & Move TLF Dividends & DRIP TLF Insiders & 13F TLF Whale Options TLF Profit Sankey TLF News & Why