MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why TIC Stock surged +3.90% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$10.39 +3.90% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.44
TIC Solutions Inc. (TIC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $2.27B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.44 (+0.51%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TIC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TIC SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (26% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 68% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 64.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (24% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.5% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$8.91-2.9% Next Q
38
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$8.65+12.1% Next Q
41
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$9.70+7.1% Next Q
43
CurrentGrade D$10.39-6.1% Hist 90D α
46
Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TIC Turnaround Squeeze
While TIC currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.19) and Max Pain ($10.91) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.94.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TIC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TIC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why TIC Stock surged +3.90% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
TIC Solutions Inc. (TIC) surged +3.90% to $10.39, trading at 68% of its 52-week range ($6.36 – $12.32). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 68% of its 52-week range ($6.36 – $12.32) with RSI-14 at 64.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.5% around $10.39 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 29.4% gross margin and $61.3M annual free cash flow.
Live TIC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 6h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TIC)
- ✓Walkthrough of TIC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TIC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.68%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $10.31H $10.39L $9.96C $10.39VOL 1.42M
RES: $10.79SUP: $7.67SMA50: $9.19SMA200: $8.76
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
TIC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TIC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TIC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TIC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TIC)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #726 of 1011
⚔️ FLYW vs TIC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TIC vs. FLYW, PAYO, WU, TNET)
Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TIC Solutions Inc. (TIC) ranks #726 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #401 by equity capitalization ($2.27B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WU leads on earnings valuation at 3.9x trailing P/E, while WU leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and 34.3% gross margin. WU currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with TIC at 46/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIC
ACTIVE
TIC Solutions Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | 29.4% | -0.4% | +3.90% | $2.27B | Benchmark Subject |
| FLYW Flywire Corporation Voting | C | 62/100 | — | — | 1.8% | +1.90% | $2.35B | /flyw-vs-tic → |
| PAYO Payoneer Global Inc. | C+ | 66/100 | 33.0x | — | 34.1% | 0.00% | $2.41B | /payo-vs-tic → |
| WU Western Union Company | C+ | 68/100 | 3.9x | 34.3% | 85.0% | +1.97% | $1.94B | /wu-vs-tic → |
| TNET TriNet Group Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | 18.9x | — | 85.0% | -9.53% | $2.92B | /tnet-vs-tic → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002032966In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TIC Solutions Inc. (TIC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.53B (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and +45.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$87.1M, operating cash flow of $95.0M, and free cash flow of $61.3M . On the balance sheet, TIC closed FY2025 with $4.40B in total assets against $1.59B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.08, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.53B | -$87.1M | $95.0M | $61.3M | $4.40B | $1.59B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $0 | — | — | $2.21B | $747.0M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.05B | $0 | — | — | — | — |
3. TIC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs TIC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, TIC Solutions Inc. (NYSE: TIC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $10.39 (+3.90% 1D, market cap $2.27B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TIC ranks #726 in composite RQD confidence.
How does TIC compare to FLYW and PAYO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), TIC carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 29.4%, and ROIC of -0.4%. By comparison, FLYW (Flywire Corporation Voting) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 1.8%, cap $2.35B) and PAYO (Payoneer Global Inc.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 33.0x, ROIC 34.1%, cap $2.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WU leads on earnings multiple (3.9x) while WU leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TIC?
Per TIC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002032966), TIC Solutions Inc. generated $1.53B in revenue, -$87.1M in net income, and $61.3M in free cash flow against $4.40B in total assets and $1.59B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is TIC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
TIC last traded at $10.39 (+3.90% on volume of 1,260,112 shares), positioning the stock +13.06% above its 50-day simple moving average ($9.19) and +18.61% above its 200-day simple moving average ($8.76). Across its 52-week range of $6.36 to $12.32, TIC sits at the 67.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.5% ($9.51 to $11.27).
TIC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is TIC stock moving today?
Why TIC Stock surged +3.90% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-0% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.